Kinh tế thị trường bền vững: Mô hình phát triển mới cho Việt Nam giai đoạn 2011-2020

KINH T f THI TRl/dNG B^N VDNG:<br /> MO HlNH P H A T T R I ^ N MCfl CHO V I E T NAM GIAI DOAN 2011-2020<br /> <br /> D o Dufc D i n h *<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Trong Tgp chi so 33 (6/2010), Tgp chi Do'i vdi Viet Nam, mgt nUdc vUa nho<br /> Qudn ly Kinh te dd ddng cdc phdn: 1. vUa hep, tuy mdi p h a t hien r a mgt so' tai<br /> Tiep tuc day mgnh phdt trien nin kinh te nguyen khoang s a n cd trU lugng kha,<br /> thi trudng; 2. ThUc thi chien lugc CNH nhUng khdng dang la bao so vdi nhieu<br /> phdt huy lgi the so sdnh dpng. Sau ddy, nude t r e n the gidi, trong khi chung ta lai<br /> moi cdc hgn doc phdn tiep theo. cd ngudn n h a n lUe k h a ddi dao vdi 86<br /> trieu ngudi n a m 2009, ddng thU 13 the<br /> 3. Thi^c h i ^ n c h i e n lu!cfc p h a t t r i e n<br /> gidi, Viet Nam khong co con dudng ndo<br /> l a y c o n ngifdfi l a m t r u n g t a m vdfi<br /> tdt han Id xdy dUng vd thUc thi chien lugc<br /> n g u o n n h a n lu'c c h a t li^ofng cao la<br /> phdt trien lay con ngUai ldm trung tdm,<br /> d o n g li^c c h i n h<br /> lay nguon nhdn lUc chdt lugng cao Id<br /> Kinh nghiem cua ca nhdng nUde ngheo dpng lUc chinh de ddy nhanh toe dp phdt<br /> tai nguyen thien nhien nhU N h a t Ban, trien vd ndng cao ndng lUc cgnh tranh<br /> H a n Qudc,. Singapo, Thuy Sy, Ixraen, va eda ddt nUac, eda cong ty, cung nhu eda<br /> nhdng nUde giau tai nguyen thien nhien moi sdn phdm. Muo'n lam dUcfc dieu dd,<br /> nhu cac quo'c gia cd nhieu dau Ida, vang, ehung ta khong n h d n g can xay dUng mgt<br /> kim eUgng va eae loai khoang san khac d xa hgi eong bang, dn dinh va ddng thuan,<br /> khu vUc Trung Dong, chau Phi, deu k h a n g ma con can p h a t t r i e n m a n h giao due,<br /> dinh chi eo dUa t r e n ngudn n h a n lUc chat dao tao bac cao de n a n g eao chat lugng<br /> lugng eao la chinh thi mdi co the dat duge ngudn n h a n lUe, tao ra mgt moi trUdng<br /> mgt sU p h a t trien nhanh, eao va ben dan chu de mgi ngUdi p h a t huy tai nang,<br /> vUng. Hon nda, ngudn n h a n lUc chat sang tao, gdp p h a n xay dUng va phat<br /> lugng cao vdi trinh do hge van va ky trien d a t nUdc.<br /> nang nghe nghiep cao con la yeu to' ed't<br /> Trong nhUng n a m ddi mdi vi/a qua,<br /> ldi giup mgt nUdc p h a t trien trung binh<br /> chung ta da d a t mgt sd t h a n h qua quan<br /> sdm thoat khdi eai "bSy thu n h a p trung<br /> trgng trong viec giai quye't va p h a t trien<br /> binh". Y lai qua nhieu vao tai nguyen<br /> mgt so' van de kinh te - xa hgi t h i e t yeu.<br /> thien nhien thi du ed nhieu den may eung<br /> Ndi b a t la viec p h a t t r i e n rgng rai he<br /> chi CO the n h a n h chong kiem duge mgt it<br /> thdng giao due phd thdng, tao dieu kien<br /> tien nhd khai thac va b a n tai nguyen tho,<br /> de t r e n 90% sd ngUdi d a n dugc den<br /> trd nen kha gia n h a t thdi, khong dat<br /> trudng va biet chd, md rgng m a n g ludi y<br /> dugc muc tieu trd t h a n h mgt nUde eong<br /> te, cham sde sde khoe eho dai da sd n h a n<br /> nghiep hay mgt nUdc ph'at trien. ChUa ke<br /> dan, gdp p h a n n a n g cao tudi thg trung<br /> vi nhdng ngudn tai nguyen dd ma nhieu<br /> binh tif 50 tudi trong t h a p nien 1960 len<br /> qudc gia da bi bien t h a n h nhdng bai<br /> chien trUdng the t h a m cua n a n cUdp<br /> D5 Dii'c Dinh, Pho giao sU, tien si, Vien trudng Vien<br /> trong giac ngoai. Nghien cCfu Trung Dong va chau Phi.<br /> <br /> <br /> ra QUAN LY KINH TE So 34 (7/2010)<br /> KINH TE THI TRLTONG B E N V I J N G : MO HiNH PHAT TRIEN MOI CHO VIET NAM... NGHIEN Cihi - TRAO DOI [^\\\<br /> <br /> <br /> tren 70 tudi hien nay, giam n h a n h ty le chieu sau, day manh tien trinh CNH,<br /> ngheo ddi tU t r e n 70% xudng 20%, dam HDH, md rgng hon nda tien trinh hgi<br /> bao phan phdi nhdng t h a n h qua eua tien nhap qud^c te va thuc day phat trien nen<br /> trinh ddi mdi khong chi ed lgi cho ngUdi kinh te tri thdc, chung ta khong co sU lUa<br /> giau, ma con hd trg tich cUc cho ca ngUdi chgn nao td^t hon la chuyen trgng tdm<br /> ngheo. NhUng t h a n h qua t r e n day chUng sang ndng cao chdt lUgng nguon nhdn<br /> minh tinh Uu viet cua mo hinh "kinh te lUc, dac biet cdn Uu tien ddu tU de ndng<br /> thi trudng dinh hudng XHCN". Chinh nhd cao chdt lugng gido due, ddo tgo bdc cao,<br /> mo hinh dd ma nhieu van de kinh te - xa dgi hoc vd tren dgi hge. Day la linh vUc<br /> hgi nan giai va thiet ye'u da dugc giai hien dang eon nhieu b a t cap, chUa dap<br /> quyet kha t h a n h eong ngay trong dieu dng dugc nhdng nhu eau cua giai doan<br /> kien mgt nUdc cd n e n kinh te kem phat phat trien mdi gan vdi CNH, HDH, toan<br /> trien vao loai nha't the gidi nhU Viet eau boa va kinh te tri thUe. Mgt nUde<br /> Nam. ThUc te nay khang dinh sU dung ngay cang tang mdc do CNH, HDH, hgi<br /> dan va can thiet tiep tuc dUdng loi dinh nhap qud^c te ma khong eo lay mgt trUdng<br /> hudng XHCN, nha't la, trong viee de ra va dai hge dat chuan khu vUc va quo'c te thi<br /> thUe thi eae chien luge phat trien toan sao ed the hgi nhap hieu qua va chat<br /> dien ve kinh te - xa hgi, khac phuc eg che lugng duge. Dd chinh la ly do t a i sao hau<br /> binh quan ehii nghia trUde day da triet het hge sinh gidi, eon cai eae gia dinh cd<br /> tieu dgng lUc phat trien, xdy dUng mpt ca dieu kien kinh te kha, deu khong mud'n<br /> che mai kit hgp tdng trUdng kinh te cao hge d trong nUde, tim dUdng di du bgc d<br /> vdi cong bdng xd hpi, khoi day cac dgng nUdc ngoai, mac du chi phi ton kem hon<br /> lUc phat trien phuc vu lgi ieh ngUdi lao nhieu so vdi hge d trong nUdc. Mud^n n a n g<br /> dgng, tao ra mgt moi trUdng song va lam cao chat lugng giao due dao tao de dat<br /> viee nang dgng, dn dinh va ddng thuan. chuan quo'c te thi trude h e t eac cap dai<br /> hge va tren dai hge phai day va hge cac<br /> He tho'ng giao due - dao tao la yeu to'<br /> kien thdc quoc te de dao tao ra' nhUng<br /> ed vi tri quan trgng hang dau, ed^t loi de<br /> ngUdi cd kha nang lam viec ca d trong<br /> nang cao chat lugng ngudn n h a n lUe. Mgt<br /> nUdc va nUdc ngoai, ddng thdi phai day<br /> t h a n h tieh ldn cua chung ta trong thdi ky<br /> nhieu bang nhdng ngon ngU phd bien<br /> vda qua la da day m a n h phat trien giao<br /> tren the gidi, dae biet la tieng Anh, phai<br /> due phd thong va day tieng Viet, dUa giao<br /> coi tieng Anh la quoc ngU thU hai, sau<br /> due phd thong va tieng Viet trd t h a n h<br /> tieng Viet, hoac la ngogi ngd Sd 1. Vi dge<br /> nen tang tri thUc, mgt dgng lUc ldn thuc<br /> lap, tu chu, gid gin ban s&c van hoa dan<br /> day sU phat trien kinh te - xa hgi cua dat<br /> toe thi day tieng Viet; vi hgi nhap quoc<br /> nude. Mae du vay, k e t qua dat duge ehu<br /> te, md mang dan tri thi day tieng Anh.<br /> yeu mdi la phat trien dai t r a ve chieu<br /> Neu khong, se khong bao gid tien kip cac<br /> rgng vdi trinh do va chat lUcfng tha'p. Lgi<br /> nUde phat trien, dUng ndi tdi "di t a t don<br /> the ve ngudn lao dgng gia r e , trinh do<br /> dau" trong xu the toan cau boa, tien<br /> thap, ket hgp vdi khai thac, sd dung va<br /> nhanh, tien manh len kinh te tri thdc.<br /> xua't khau t a i nguyen thien nhien thd<br /> dang nhanh chdng tien tdi ngUdng, khong Mgt b a t cap ldn trong he tho'ng giao<br /> bao lau nda chung ta se m a t lgi the nay. due cua nUdc ta hien nay la it coi trgng<br /> De vUgt qua ngUdng phat trien theo chieu dao tao ky nang nghe nghiep. Chung ta<br /> rgng, budc sang giai doan mdi nh&m dap cd mgt thoi quen xau la thich t h a n h tich,<br /> dng nhdng nhu cau to ldn mdi eua dat con ggi la "benh t h a n h tich". Vi t h e ,<br /> nudc nhu tang cUdng phat trien theo nhieu ngUdi thudng td ra r a t hd hdi khi<br /> <br /> 30 34(7/2010) QUAN LY KINH TE<br /> Mn NGHIEN CUfU - TRAO DOI KINH TE THI TRLTONG B£N VONG: M O HiNH PHAT TRiiN MOI CHO VIET NAM..<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> noi ve ket qua eao trong eac ky thi qude den may khong t r a n h khdi nhUng h a n<br /> te ve toan, ly, hoa eua mgt so' hge sinh che, b a t cap. Chinh tU viec xoa bo che do<br /> gidi. Dang tiee la p h a n ldn sd hge sinh dd cao bang, ap dung eg che ngUdi l a m to't<br /> sau khi thi dat giai cao it p h a t huy duge hgn duge hudng quyen Icfi cao hgn da dan<br /> tai nang. Ly do la sau dd hg khong cdn den nhUng m a t can b a n g khac, dac biet<br /> dugc tiep tuc eoi trgng trong dao tao va la tinh t r a n g t a n g n h a n h mde chenh lech<br /> suf dung, nhiem vu cua nganh giao due do'i giau ngheo gida eae ca n h a n , vung mien.<br /> vdi hg coi nhU da xong, luyen thi de lay MUe chenh lech thu n h a p giUa nhdm 20%<br /> t h a n h tich thi cuf eao, khong phai de ed dan sd giau nha't va n h d m 20% d a n sd<br /> ky nang nghe nghiep gidi. Dd la ly do ngheo nha't tU eho gan nhU ngang nhau<br /> giai thieh tai sao thi lay diem thi p h a n nay t a n g len gan 10 lan, ngUge vdi xu<br /> dong hge sinh, sinh vien dat kha, gioi, hudng d i i n ra tai mgt so' n e n kinh trong<br /> nhUng thi de kiem nghe thi hau h e t dat khu vUe chau A nhU N h a t Ban, H a n Quo'c,<br /> kem. Mgt vi du dien hinh la Hang Intel Dai Loan mUc chenh leeh giam dan tU<br /> cua My vao Viet Nam dau tU da td chUe t r e n 20 lan xuo'ng 4-5 lan. Mac du trong<br /> thi tuyen n h a n vien eong nghe thong tin, kinh te thi trUdng chenh leeh la can thie't<br /> mgt linh vUc nhieu ngUdi Viet Nam tU eho de tao dgng lUc p h a t trien, nhUng chenh<br /> la gioi vi thong minh. NhUng ket qua t h a t lech tdi 10 lan la qua eao, chenh lech<br /> bat ngd, trong sd 2000 Ung vien du thi de khodng 5 ldn la hgp ly, vUa khuyen<br /> vao lam viee eho eg sd san xua't eua h a n g khich, tao dieu kien de ngUdi lam an gioi<br /> tai t h a n h phd Hd Chi Minh, chi ed 90 Ung ed thu n h a p cao hun, vUa dam bao nhdng<br /> vien, tdc 5%, dat chuan chuyen mon, lgi ieh eua t a n g trUdng kinh te duge phan<br /> trong dd 40 Ung vien (2%) du trinh do phdi tuong do'i eong b a n g cho nhUng<br /> tieng Anh de tuyen dung, chung cugc 2% ngudi ed t a i n a n g lam a n tdt va ea nhUng<br /> dat chuan tuyen dung! Hay Renesas, mgt ngudi cd h a n che ve sUe khoe, n a n g lUe,<br /> h a n g thiet ke va san xua't vi mach h a n g lam a n kem hgn.<br /> dau cua N h a t Ban dau tU vao t h a n h phd<br /> Cg eau lao dgng la mgt trong nhdng<br /> Hd Chi Minh, mudn tim tuyen 500 ky sU<br /> tieu ehi co b a n de d a n h gia mUe do thay<br /> cho giai doan boat dgng dau tien, ma sudt<br /> ddi ve eha't cua tien t r i n h CNH, HDH.<br /> 2 nam 2007 va 2008 chi tuyen dugc 60<br /> Tuy CO eau n g a n h kinh te trong thdi ky<br /> ngudi dat chuan. Benh t h a n h tieh da lai<br /> ddi mdi da ed sU ehuyen dich tUOng ddi<br /> he thdng giao due, dao tao Viet Nam p h a t<br /> kha theo hudng CNH, HDH, ty trgng<br /> trien theo hudng t r a i vdi nhu cau p h a t<br /> nong nghiep trong GDP da giam xudng<br /> trien, eoi trgng t h a n h tieh thi cuf mUdi, ky<br /> khoang 20%, eong nghiep va dich vu tang<br /> nang nghe nghiep mgt, nay can dao chieu<br /> len 80%, nhung eg eau lao dgng p h a n theo<br /> n h a m dap dng dung nhu eau thUe te: xdy<br /> n g a n h thi eon xa mdi dat dugc eae ty le<br /> dung mpt he thong gido due thUc sU phuc<br /> do, trong khi co ca'u lao dgng chinh la<br /> vu phdt trien, coi trgng ddo tgo ky ndng<br /> thudc do p h a n a n h thUc chat eua viec ap<br /> nghi nghiep mUai, thdnh tich thi cd. mpt.<br /> dung phuong phap eong nghiep trong<br /> Ve phan phd'i, td khi ap dung cO che p h a t trien. ThUc te qua t r i n h chuyen ddi<br /> kinh te thi trUdng, che do p h a n chia eg eau lao dgng theo hudng CNH, HDH d<br /> mang tinh cao bang theo kieu binh quan nude ta d i l n ra r a t cham chap, sau 60<br /> chu nghia da duge khae phue, ngUdi lam n a m thue hien CNH, HDH ke tU t h a p<br /> tot hon da dugc do'i xuf td^t hgn, dugc nien 1960 den nay, v i n edn t r e n 70% lao<br /> hudng quyen lgi eao hgn, ed thu n h a p eao dgng lam nghe nong, sdng d eae vung<br /> hgn. NhUng mgi ehinh saeh du Uu viet nong thon, chUng nao ty le nay chUa<br /> <br /> [ Q QUAN LY KINH TE<br /> So 34 (7/2010)<br /> KINH TE THI TRLTONG B^N VONG: MO HiNH P H A T TRIEN MOI CHO VIET NAM... NGHIEN Ciim - TRAO DOI [ ^ I H<br /> <br /> <br /> giam xudng dudi 25% thi n e n kinh te ta da chinh thUe la t h a n h vien cua Td<br /> nude ta ve thuc chat ehUa the duge ggi la chUc Thugng mai The gidi (WTO), eac<br /> nen kinh te eong nghiep. De dUa ty le lao nha kinh doanh phai canh tranh cong<br /> dpng nong nghiep xuong duai 25%, chae bang khong ehi tai thi trU^ng trong nUdc,<br /> chan ehung ta con m a t it nha't vai ba ma ca thi trUdng qudc te. NhUng gi chung<br /> thap ky. Theo eae tinh toan gan day, dU ta da va dang lam tU khi thUe hien chinh<br /> bao ty le sd dan Viet Nam sdng d khu vUc sach ddi mdi, tuy da giam bdt tinh ky thi<br /> do thi den n a m 2020 co the dugc nang va phan biet do'i xd giUa qude doanh va tU<br /> len 45%, den nam 2050 dat khoang 80%, doanh so vdi thdi ky trUde ddi mdi, nhUng<br /> neu ehung ta tiep tuc duy tri dugc toe do chua gd bd het nhUng "trdi huge" dang<br /> tang trudng kinh te va CNH cao nhU thdi sau nhdng ldi ho hao mang tinh khau<br /> ky vUa qua. So vdi ty le eg ca'u dan so cua hieu dgng vien khuyen khieh chung<br /> My hien nay la 1-2% so' dan lam nong chung. Nay can co cO che, chinh sach<br /> nghiep, dudi 20% lam cong nghiep va thiet thUc de dUa nhUng ldi dgng vien dd<br /> khoang 80% trong khu vUc dich vu, thi de trd t h a n h nhdng bien phap kich thich<br /> trd t h a n h mgt nUde eong nghiep phat kinh doanh thUc sU. Cd nha tU doanh khi<br /> trien, chae chan ehung ta eon phai trai duge trao chUng n h a n doanh n h a n gidi da<br /> qua mgt chang dUdng r a t dai. tUng phat bieu rang do la mgt vinh dU,<br /> Mgt nhiem vu cap bach, nhUng ddng nhUng neu sU vinh danh dd duge the hien<br /> bang nhUng bien phap tao dieu kien<br /> thdi cd y nghia lau dai, la phai xdy dUng<br /> thuan lgi va kieh thich kinh te thong qua<br /> dugc mpt dpi ngd cdc nhd doanh nhdn<br /> cac thu tuc h a n h chinh minh bach, cac<br /> gioi, dae biet la eae nha tai chinh, thuong<br /> ehe do thue, tin dung, da't dai, co sd ha<br /> nhan, cac nha cong nghiep va dich vu co<br /> tang mang tinh khuyen khich ddi vdi<br /> tam cd qud^c gia va qud^e te. Viec chung ta<br /> doanh nghiep, khong sach nhiiu... thi<br /> tiep n h a n tdi t r e n 90% dau tU nUde ngoai<br /> con hon nhieu so vdi viec cap cho mgt td<br /> la dau tu trUc tiep chUng td dgi ngu eac<br /> giay vinh danh ma ehUa "cdi troi" thUe<br /> nha kinh doanh cua Viet Nam cdn rat<br /> s u . : •>' :•• • -; =.;<br /> non kem, chUa du sUc phat trien eac<br /> nganh eong nghiep cua da't nUde, phu Mgt van de nda tuy dugc neu sau,<br /> thuoc qua nhieu vao cac nha dau tU trUc nhung CO y nghia quan trgng hang dau<br /> tiep nUdc ngoai. ChUng nao chung ta lam do'i vdi viec phat trien va sd dung ngudn<br /> dugc nhu Han Quo'c trong thdi ky dau n h a n lUc chat lugng eao, dd la viec gidi<br /> CNH vao nhUng t h a p nien 1950 va 1960, phong tu duy vd ndng lUc sdng tgo, trgng<br /> hay An Do tU khi b a t dau cong cugc cai dung ngUdi tai, loai bd nhUng rao can gay<br /> each, tu do hoa tU n a m 1991 den nay, thu trd ngai do'i vdi sU sang tao va ddng gdp<br /> hut tren 90% dau tU nUdc ngoai la dau tU eua ngUdi tai. Nhffng xa hgi van minh sd<br /> gian tiep de xay dUng va phat trien cae di trd nen van minh vi hg da xay dUng<br /> nganh eong nghiep eua eac nha kinh dugc nhffng eo ehe dam bao cho tU do<br /> doanh trong nUde, thi luc dd ta mdi co the sang tao va khuyen khich ngUdi tai sang<br /> yen tam rSng dgi ngu cac nha doanh tao. Cac xa hgi van minh da lam the,<br /> nhan Viet Nam co du kha nang phat nUde ta muo'n di len van minh, hien dai,<br /> trien nen cong nghiep eua da't nUde. Xay khong the khong lam the. ;i; .-;/:<br /> dung mgt dgi ngu eac nha doanh n h a n Thu tu, md rpng hpi nhdp quoc te theo<br /> dong dao va gioi kinh doanh la mgt thach huang bo sung npi lUc vai ngogi luc, kit<br /> thdc ldn cua da't nUde, nhUng khong the hgp hdi hod chien luge huang vdo xudt<br /> khong lam, n h a t la trong bdi canh nUde khdu vai thay the nhdp khdu<br /> <br /> So 34 (7/2010) QUAN LY KINH TE ^<br /> MB NGHIEN Cini - TRAO DOI KINH Tg THI TRLTONG BSN VLTNG: M O HiNH PHAT TRI^N MOI CHO VIET NAM..<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Day la bai hoc duge due rut sau khi chdng lai sU do hg eua tU b a n nUdc ngoai,<br /> chffng kien nhffng tac dgng tieu cUe cua nhUng den giUa t h a p n i e n 1960 nd da trd<br /> cae ehinh sach t h a i qua hUdng ngi va ed t h a n h v a t can dUdng eua cac nUdc dang<br /> da'u hieu thien leeh hUdng ngoai mgt so' p h a t t r i e n do qua nha'n m a n h de'n dge<br /> n a m gan day. Hudng ngi qua thi bd Id eae lap, t u ehu, n e n da d i n cac n e n kinh te<br /> CO hgi ma thi trUdng the gidi mang lai dang p h a t t r i e n de'n chd bi khu biet khdi<br /> trong khi eae ngudn ngi lUe qua khan the gidi p h a t trien, khong t r a n h thu duge<br /> hiem, thieu thon, khong du de p h a t trien, eac ngudn vdn, cong nghe, thi trUdng va<br /> khien kinh te - xa hgi rgi vao khung kinh nghiem quan ly, lam cho eae nUde<br /> hoang t r a m trgng nhU da d i i n ra ngay dang p h a t t r i e n bi m a t nhieu eg hgi va<br /> dem trudc cua thdi ky ddi mdi. Hudng ngudn lUc p h a t trien. Rd r a n g den luc nay<br /> ngoai qua thi hi tae dgng tieu eUc khi thi chien luge thay t h e n h a p khau khong con<br /> trudng the gidi va khu vUe thu hep nhU phu hgp nffa.<br /> da t r a i nghiem qua hai cugc khung hoang Tff giffa t h a p nien 1960, mgt chien lUgfc<br /> khu vUe va the gidi nhffng n a m 1997- mdi da duge t h i e t ke - chien luge hUdng<br /> 1998 va 2008-2009. Bai hge nay ggi md xuat khau - vdi mue tieu khae phue nhffng<br /> mgt chien Iffoe hgi n h a p quo'c te mdi giam b a n ehe cua chie'n luuc thay the nhap<br /> tinh thai qua va t a n g tinh can bang. khau, md ra nhffng co hgi mdi cho cae<br /> Trong thUc te chung ta da cd nhffng nffde dang p h a t t r i e n trong tiep can thi<br /> dieu chinh dap Ung nhffng thay ddi eua trUdng the gidi rgng ldn, tiep can cac<br /> mdi thdi ky, nhu da kip thdi ehuyen ngudn vo'n, cong nghe va phuong phap<br /> hudng tff "nha't the hoa" mgt chieu dUdi quan ly hien dai. Chien luge hudng xuat<br /> he thdng XHCN cu trUde day sang da khau da p h a t huy tae dung r a t m a n h eho<br /> phugng hoa, da dang hoa, phu hop vdi xu den khi nd ra cugc khung hoang dau Ida<br /> the mdi ve toan eau boa, khu vUe hoa, vao nhffng n a m 1973-1974, rdi khung<br /> t r a n h dugc sU sup dd theo he thdng hoang tai chinh chau A n a m 1997-1998<br /> XHCN eu da tan ra tff dau t h a p nien va khung hoang kinh te the gidi nam<br /> 1990. Nhffng da phffong hoa, da dang hoa 2008-2009 thu h e p thi trUdng the gidi, thi<br /> ma thieu dinh hUdng ro rang, thieu chien luge hudng xuat khau da m a t dan<br /> nhffng chien Iffoc, ehinh saeh, giai phap tae dung eua nd. Luc n a y nhieu n h a chien<br /> sat vdi dieu kien thffe te eua dat nffde va luge va hoach dinh chinh sach da quay lai<br /> the gidi thi se d i n de'n khdng ro hffdng di n h a n m a n h tdi cae thi trUdng trong nUdc<br /> cu the, hoac vo tinh di theo nhffng ldi va trong khu vUe.<br /> mon, nhffng chinh saeh, chie'n Iffcfc do Nhffng thay ddi t r e n day eung da diin<br /> ngudi khae dinh s i n , da dugc ap dung ra tffgng tff ddi vdi Viet Nam, mgt nUde co<br /> t h a n h eong d nUdc nay, nUdc khac vao thdi da ndi r a t m a n h ve tU lUc canh sinh,<br /> nhffng thdi diem n h a t dinh vdi nhffng rdi md cufa thue day hgi n h a p qude te, va<br /> dieu kien thich hgp trong tinh hinh lue nay lai dang p h a t dgng phong trao ngUdi<br /> do, nhffng khong con phu hgp hay chi phu Viet Nam Uu tien dung h a n g Viet Nam.<br /> hgp tffng phan vdi nhffng dieu kien thffe Thuc te dd dang d a t ra eho Viet Nam mdt<br /> te eua the gidi va nUdc ta hien nay. yeu eau la can tim eho m i n h mgt chien<br /> Nhu chien luge thay the n h a p khau lugc hgi n h a p mdi phu hgp hgn, can ddi<br /> chang ban. Nd da phat huy tac dung tdt hgn, khae phue nhffng lech lae hffdng ngi<br /> vao t h a p nien 1950 va nda dau t h a p nien hay hudng ngoai t h a i qua. Mae du ddi vdi<br /> 1960 khi cae nUdc dang phat t r i e n can mgt n e n kinh te nhd, kem p h a t t r i e n nhU<br /> xay dung nen kinh te doc lap dan tgc. Viet Nam hien nay, ngogi thuong vdn<br /> <br /> QUAN LY KINH TE So 34 (7/2010)<br /> KINH Tg THI TRLTONG B E N VLTNG: MO HiNH PHAT TRiiN MOI CHO VIET NAM.. NGHIEN Cinj - TRAO DPI [TOI<br /> <br /> tiep tuc dong vai tro ddu tdu eda tdng vUc kinh doanh mdi nay len ngang t i m ,<br /> trudng, nhUng trong bo'i canh mdi cua t h a m ehi d i n vUgt len tren vien trg, khac<br /> toan eau hoa va kinh te tri thffe ed tinh phue d i n thoi quen y lai, ben ngoai thi<br /> hai mat, co hgi nhieu, rui ro lam, thi giai trong chd vao sU giup dd hao t a m cua cac<br /> phap thffe te va it hi tdn thffong la thUe nude XHCN eu, ben trong thi dUa d i m<br /> hien chien lugc md rpng hpi nhdp qudc te vao CO che bao cap, xin, cho.<br /> theo hudng bd sung gida npi lUc vd ngogi Chinh viec tim duge eai c i n eau va<br /> lUc, kit hgp hdi hod giUa hai chien lugc each eau mdi nay la t h a n h qua ldn n h a t<br /> hudng vdo xudt khdu vd thay the nhdp trong hai t h a p ky rUdi ddi mdi boat dgng<br /> khdu la phu hgp nha't. Chien luge mdi kinh te ddi ngoai ndi rieng, ddi mdi cO<br /> nay khong nhffng cho phep chung ta vUa che boat dgng kinh te eua dat nUde ta ndi<br /> phat huy dugc eae ngudn ngi lUe san co, ehung. Day tuy khong la san pham can,<br /> vffa tranh thu dffgc cac eg hgi ma toan do, dong, dem dugc, nhUng la t h a n h qua<br /> cau boa, khu vffe hoa mang lai, mgt mat bao trum len t r e n t a t ca nhffng t h a n h qua<br /> khong qua trong chd vao cac cO hgi ben can, do, dong, dem dffgc. Nhd cd cai e i n<br /> ngoai ma quen hoac coi nhe nhffng nguon cau va each cau mdi nay ma Viet Nam -<br /> Iffc trong nffde, m a t khac khac phuc tinh mgt nffde nhd vdi nen kinh te kem phat<br /> trang mat thi trUdng nUdc ngoai khi trien - da bat dffgc nhffng con ca kha to,<br /> khung hoang kinh te the gidi va khu vUc, da day nhanh td'c do tang trffdng kinh te,<br /> khong bd trong thi trUdng trong nUde cho giam bdt doi ngheo, md rgng boat dgng<br /> tu ban nUde ngoai, khi kinh te the gidi va xuat nhap khau, d i u tff nffde ngoai, du<br /> khu vUc t a n g trudng m a n h thi hUdng lieh, dich vu, kieu hoi, ddng thdi huy<br /> ngoai manh, day m a n h xuat khau, khi dgng va sff dung tot hOn ngudn vien trg<br /> kinh te the gidi va khu vUc rOi vao khung nffde ngoai. Sff thay doi each nghi, each<br /> hoang, suy thoai thi hudng ngi manh, md lam trong nhffng n a m ddi mdi da tao eho<br /> rgng thi trUdng trong nUde, vao luc binh Viet Nam mgt da phat trien kha manh,<br /> thudng thi phat huy ca hai. mgt dong chay lien tue, mgt xu hffdng t a t<br /> Mgt van de ldn khae eua Viet Nam yeu khong the dao ngffgc. Cai dang c i n<br /> trong hgi nhap qud^c te la each thdc hgi hien nay la tim ra mgt mo hinh mdi co<br /> nhap. Da cd thdi khi noi den hgp tac quo'c kha nang dUa dat nUdc tdi mgt giai doan<br /> te hay "nhat the hoa" XHCN, hau nhU phat trien nang dgng, dn dinh va ben<br /> chung ta chi chu trgng den vien trg, it de vffng hon.<br /> y den phat trien ngoai thUOng, dau tU, du Ket l u a n : Trffdc khi dUa ra ket luan<br /> lich, xua't khau lao dgng va cac hinh thffe va kien nghi cua minh, chung toi da<br /> kinh doanh qudc te khac. Rat may tff khi nghien effu ky cae y kien de xuat cua mgt<br /> ddi mdi, chung ta da dan dan tim ra dffgc so' nha khoa hoc, nha hoach dinh chinh<br /> cai can cau va each eau hffu hieu, da thay saeh ve cae quan diem va mo hinh p h a t<br /> ddi mgt each can ban quan niem ve lam trien tdng quat eua Viet Nam trong giai<br /> kinh te doi ngoai, khong con qua le thuge doan mdi tff nay den n a m 2020 va xa<br /> vao vien trg, hay cd the ndi la da cai dffgc hon, ndi bat la eae kien nghi nhff "mo<br /> cai benh "nghien" vien trg, chuyen dan hinh nin kinh te thi trudng hien dgi" do<br /> sang mgt tff duy mdi va each lam mdi, GS.TS. Le Du Phong de xuat; "mo hinh<br /> ngay cang eoi trgng hgn eae phffgng thffe kinh te thi trUang Viet Nam hien dgi" eua<br /> kinh doanh kinh te ddi ngoai, phat trien GS.TS. Nguyin Van Nam va Nguyin Ddc<br /> manh ngoai thffOng, dau tff nffde ngoai, du Hien; "Quan diem mai cho phdt trien xd<br /> lieh, xua't khau lao dgng... dffa nhffng linh hpi hen vUng" cua PGS. TSKH Lffgng<br /> <br /> So 34 (7/2010) QUAN LY KINH TE [ Q<br />  MJ!\NGHIEN ClhJ - TRAO DOI KINH TE THI TRITONG BSN VLTNG: MO HiNH PHAT TRIEN MOI CHO VIET NAM..<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Viet Hai; "Mpt so vdn di ddt ra trong ben vffng thong qua eac chinh sach cong<br /> qud trinh phdt trien nin kinh te thi bang xa hgi va bao ve moi trffdng, phu<br /> trUang dinh hUdng XHCN d Viet Nam" hgfp n h a t cho giai doan ddi mdi tie'p theo<br /> cua GS.TS. Lffgng Xuan Quy va Nguyin eua da't nffde tff nay den n a m 2020 va mgt<br /> Anh Tuan; "Phdt trien nin kinh te tri vai t h a p nien sau dd. Giai phap nay<br /> thitc d Viet Nam" cua TS. T r i n Hdng Lffu; khdng nhffng cd the giup Viet Nam khac<br /> "Ddo tgo vd phdt trien nguon nhdn lUc phuc n h a n h nhffng hau qua cua cugc<br /> trong phdt trien doanh nghiep 6 nUdc ta" khung hoang dang d i i n ra, ma eon tranh<br /> eua Nguyin Thi Huyen; "Van hod kinh thu ehinh cugc khung hoang dd de phat<br /> doanh - Yeu cdu tdt yeu ciia sU phdt trien trien nhffng tiem n a n g va eg hgi mdi,<br /> kinh te trong diiu kien todn cdu hod" eua t r a n h rgi vao cai b i y cua nUdc thu nhap<br /> TS. P h a m Duy Hai; Xu the toan ciu va trung binh, tff do tien m a n h t r e n con<br /> giai phap phat trien dat nffde giai doan dffdng CNH, HDH n h a m dat dugc hai muc<br /> 2010-2025 cua TS. Nguyin Van Lang; va tieu CO b a n la t a n g trUdng cao di ddi vdi<br /> mgt so' de xuat khac. Mdi y kie'n de xuat p h a t trien ben vffng.<br /> t r e n day deu da p h a n tieh sau sac ve eae<br /> ngi dung va van de t h i e t yeu lien quan<br /> den mo hinh p h a t t r i e n tdng quat cua TAI LIEU THAM KHAO<br /> Viet Nam. • Dung, Le Thi Kim: The che phdt trien ben<br /> vitng trong qudn ly phdt trien kinh te - xd<br /> Tuy nhien, de dap ffng nhffng yeu ciu hgi, Tap chi Nghien ciifu Phat trien ben<br /> phat trien ca ve lUcfng va chat eua nUde ta vCng, sd 2(23) 2009.<br /> trong thdi ky mdi nhu da phan tich trong • Dinh, DQ Dufc: Kinh te hoc phdt trien - Cong<br /> cac phan tren, thi ehUa eo de xuat nao bao nghiep hod vd Cdi cdeh kinh te, NXB Chinh<br /> quat dugc d i y du nhffng yeu ciu dd. tri Qudc gia. Ha Noi, 2004.<br /> Chinh vi vay, chung toi cho r i n g trong 2- • Dufc, Danh: DUng de tham nhiing giet chet<br /> 3 t h a p ky tdi, neu Viet Nam muo'n dat phdt trien, Tudi tre 9/12/2009.<br /> dffgc mgt sff phat t r i e n n h a n h va can do'i • Ha, Pham Manh: Hien trgng vd gidi phdp<br /> ca ve lUgfng va chat, thi khong cd giai phdt trien ngdnh cong nghiep ddu khi Viet<br /> phap nao tot hon la thUe thi mo hinh Nam, Tap chi Nghien cdu Phat trien ben<br /> phdt trien nin kinh te thi trUang bin vufng, sd 2(23) 2009.<br /> vUng dUa tren ha tru cpt ca hdn Id: (1) dp • Hai, Luong Viet: Quan diem mai cho phdt<br /> dung ca che kinh te thi trUang ndng dpng; trien xd hgi ben vUng, Tap chi KHXH VN,<br /> (2) giu vdng on dinh xd hpi; vd (3) bdo ve Sd 6(37) 2009, tr.37.<br /> moi truang song trong Idnh. Vdi ba tru . Hai, Pham Duy: Vdn hod kinh doanh - Yeu<br /> cot, ddng thdi la ba dinh hUdng chie'n lugc cdu tdt yeu cua sU phdt triin kinh ti trong<br /> tren day, mo hinh phat trien mdi khong diiu kien todn cdu hod. Tap chi KHXH VN,<br /> Sd 6(37) 2009, tr.99.<br /> nhffng tiep tuc phat huy m a t tich cffe,<br /> t a n g cffdng tinh nang dgng eua n e n kinh • Hoi thao qudc te Viet Nam hpc lan thd III:<br /> te thi trUdng, ma eon khac phue m a t tieu Viet Nam - Hgi nhap vd phdt triin, Tuyen tap<br /> bao cao tom tat, NXB DHQG HN, 12-2008.<br /> cue cua nd la tinh thieu ben vffng thong<br /> qua viec ap dung cae ehinh saeh dn dinh . Huyen, Nguyin Thi: Bdo tgo vd phdt triin<br /> nguon nhdn luc trong phdt triin doanh<br /> xa hgi va bao ve moi trffdng. Dd la giai<br /> nghiep a nuac ta, Tap chi KHXH VN, Sd<br /> phap phat trien toi Uu, hudng tdi hieu qua 6(37) 2009, tr.87.<br /> tdng hgp ea ve kinh te, xa hgi va moi<br /> . Kh^nh, Nguyin Ngoc: Phdt triin bin vQng<br /> trUdng, vffa tiep tuc p h a t huy tinh n a n g<br /> trong xu thi todn cdu hod. Tap chi Nghien<br /> dgng eua eg ehe thi trUdng, vffa dam bao ciJu Phdt trien b i n vffng, sd 2(23) 2009.<br /> <br /> E Q QUAN LY KINH TE<br /> So 34 (7/2010)<br /> KINH Ti THI TRl/dNG B^N VCTNG: MO HlNH PHAT TRI^N MOI CHO VI£T NAM... NGHIEN CUU • TRAO DPI [ ^ ^ 1<br /> <br /> <br /> Khanh, Tiing: Ca sa xd hgi nhdn vdn trong "mo hinh nen kinh te thi trUofng hien dai".<br /> qudn ly nhd nuac doi vdi tdi nguyen, moi • Quang, Minh: Sai phgm ldn thuoc ve cdc tap<br /> tradng trong qud trinh CNH, HDH d Viet dodn, tdng cong ty, Tudi tre 30/12/2009 -<br /> Nam, Tap chi Nghien cdu P h a t trien ben trong bai viet co nhflng cau: "172/189 doanh<br /> vufng, sd 2(23) 2009. nghiep co sai pham trong cd phan hoa"...,<br /> Kinh, C.V.: "Tuyt coi" Lilama phdt hdnh "DN cang ldn, sai pham cang ldn",... "Tdng<br /> tien 5 trieu dong", Tudi tre, 08/01/2010. thanh tra Chinh phii Tran Van Tuyen: Se<br /> Ky yeu Hoi thao ban tron cap cao: Tong kit ap dung bien phap cUng r&n hon".<br /> 20 ndm ddi mdi a Viet Nam, Vien KHXH • Quy, Luong Xuan - Tuan, Nguyin Anh: Mgt<br /> VN, 4 tap. Ha Noi, 2005 va 2006. sd vdn de ddt ra trong qud trinh phdt triin<br /> Ky yeu Hoi thao khoa hoc: Viet Nam vd nen kinh te thi trUdng dinh hudng XHCN d<br /> tiin trinh gia nhdp WTO, DH Qudc gia HN, Viet Nam, Tap chi KHXH VN, Sd 6(37)<br /> DH KHXH-NV, Vien Konrad Adenauer, Ha 2009, tr.49.<br /> h<br /> Noi, 2004.<br /> • Stiglitz, Joseph: Bai 1: What I learned at<br /> Ky ye'u Hoi thao quo'c te Viet Nam hoc lan the World Economic Crisis (Toi dd hoc dugc<br /> thd H: "Viet Nam tren dudng phdt triin vd gi tu cugc khung hodng thi gidi), The<br /> hgi nhdp: Truyen thdng vd hien dgi", DH Insider, The New Republic, Issue date:<br /> Qudc gia HN, Vien KHXH VN,' NXB TG, 4 04.17.00, Post date: 04.06.00; Bai 2: The<br /> tap, Ha Noi, 2004. Roaring Ninties (NhUng ndm 90 gdo thet).<br /> Lang, Nguyin Van: Xu the todn cdu vd gidi The Atlantic Monthly, October 2002.<br /> phdp phdt triin ddt nUdc giai dogn 2010- • Thanh, Ha Huy - Khanh, Nguyin Ngoc,<br /> 2025, Tap chi Quan ly kinh te, sd 29, 11- Phdt triin ben vdng - TU quan niem din<br /> 12/2009. hdnh dgng, NXB KHXH, 2009. ' ' v^f;;<br /> LUu, Tran Hong: Phdt triin nin kinh ti tri • Thi, Le: Hdy gin giU moi trUdng sdng cua<br /> thdc a Viet Nam, Tap chi KHXH VN, Sd ching ta - mgt viec ldm cdp bdch, ca bdn,<br /> 6(37) 2009, "Trong khoang th&i gian gan ldu ddi, Tap chi Nghien cufu Phat trien ben<br /> day, nhilu cong trinh nghien cUu cua cac vUng, sd 4(25) 2009. , ,.<br /> hoc gia nhu J. Schumpeper, R. Solow... • Thong, Dinh Van: Nhiing dac trUng eda nen<br /> tdng trudng kinh ti khong dita vdo tri thUc kinh ti nong nghiep phdt trien ben vdng,<br /> se khong ben vUng" (tr.55)... tri thufc thUc Tap chi Nghien cUu Phat trien ben vflng, so'<br /> sU tror t h a n h yeu to' ben trong ciia san xua't 2(23) 2009.<br /> va chinh no la cai quyet dinh loi the so<br /> • Tuan, Dao Hoang (Chu bien): Phdt triin do<br /> sanh cua n i n kinh te" (tr.56).<br /> thi ben vOng: NhQng vdn de ly ludn vd kinh<br /> Nam, Nguyin Van - Hien, Nguyin DUc: Mo nghiem thi gidi, NXB KHXH, 2008.<br /> hinh kinh ti tdng qudt cua Viet Nam din<br /> • Tudi tre - Loat bai vl cac chu d l : Cong<br /> ndm 2020, Tap chi KHXH VN, Sd 6(37)<br /> nghiep phu trg: "DUa con khong chiu ldn" -<br /> 2009, tr.27: Dl xuat xay dUng "Mo hinh<br /> Ky 1: Nhdp khdu thay thi sdn xudt (Tran<br /> kinh te thi tru6ng Viet Nam hien dai".<br /> Vu Nghi - Le Nguyin Minh, 22/12/2009); Ky<br /> Ngoan, Tran Ngoc (Chu bien): Phdt triin 2: 7 ach ngdnh cong nghiep 6 to (Le Nam,<br /> nong thon bin vUng: NhUng vdn de ly ludn 23/12/2009); Ky 3: Dot phd td khdu chinh<br /> vd kinh nghiem thi gidi, NXB KHXH, 2008. sdch (Le Nguyen Minh - Tran Vu Nghi,<br /> Ngoc, Ha Huy: Mgt so vdn de ve bdo ve moi 24/12/2009); Vai tro cua cong dodn cdn md<br /> trudng trong qud trinh hgi nhdp kinh ti nhat trong xit ly dinh cong (Le Kien - Chi<br /> qudc te. Tap chi Nghien ciifu Phdt trien ben Mai, 13-4-2010).<br /> vOng, sd 3(24) 2009. • Y, Le Thanh: Phdt trien ben vUng - ghi<br /> Phong, Le Du: Mgt vdi suy nghi ve mo hinh nhgn td dien ddn cong nghe xanh GREEN-<br /> kinh te tong thi a Viet Nam, Tap chi KHXH BIZ 2009 tgi Viet Nam, Tap chi Nghien ciifu<br /> VN, Sd 6(37) 2009, tr.20-22: De xuat xay dUng P h a t trien b i n vflng, sd 4(25) 2009. ::<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> So 34 (7/2010) QUAN LY KINH TE Q<br />