Phân tích tình hình xuất nhập khẩu Việt Nam từ khi ra nhập WTO

• •DD THONG KEQOOC TE VA HOI NHAP<br /> <br /> <br /> ^<br /> PHAN TICH TINH HINH XUAT NHAP KHAU<br /> VIET NAIVI TlT KHI RA NHAP WTO<br /> ThS. Hi IVIanh Hung*<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> V<br /> ilt Nam kj Nghj dinh thu WT/ACCA/NM/48 hoing' kinh t i toin ciu ei hal chl tilu niy diu glim<br /> gia nh|p Td chic thuong mai Thi gidi (WTO) di vi glim d mic ding k i<br /> ngiy 07/11/2006 tai Geneva Thgy Sy vi lim Trong cie nim ting Iln. gii tri xuit khiu ting<br /> ll cdng nhOn chlnh thic vio ngiy 11/01/2007. Hon t i 20.1% din 31,4% vi gii tri nh|p khiu ting t i<br /> bdn nim qua kinh t i V i | t Nam cd rit nhilu thay ddi 15% din 39,6%. Blnh quin nim theo giai doan t i<br /> va biin dOng. dOc biOt li kim ngach xuit nhJp khiu 2003 din 2010 gii trj xuit khiu vi gii trj nhip khiu<br /> cia Vilt Nam chiu tic dOng rd rOt cia cic thj trudng ed tie dO ting tuong dUDng nhau (20,1% vi 20%).<br /> thuong mai qudc t i Oil vdi nln kinh t i Vilt Nam. Tuy gia trj XK vi gii trj NK ting blnh quin nim cua<br /> vai trd cia xuit khiu. nhOp khiu lai cing quan trpng ci giai doan diu 10 20% nhung trong ting nim tie<br /> hon. Xuit khiu gdp phin ting trudng kinh t i v i dp ting eia gii trj xuit khau vi tie dO ting eia gii<br /> ning cao khi ning canh tranh. chit lupng ting tri nhip khiu ed sg ehuyen dOng ding ke, hon nia<br /> trudng vi diy manh phit triin bin viing, ning cao di l i ting Iln hay giim di, ting nhilu hay ting It<br /> dOi sing cia nhin din, ting ngudn ngoai t l cho nhi nhung tdng gii trj NK cia Vilt Nam Iudn Iudn Idn<br /> nude. NhOp khau khdng chl tao dilu kiln thic diy hon tdng gii tri XK. vi do viy cic nim Iudn iudn<br /> chuyin djch co ciu theo hudng cdng nghilp hoi - trong Bnh trang nhlp silu. fj l| nhip silu (NS) nim<br /> hi|n dai hda dit nude, thic diy xuit khiu phit triin cao nhit la 29.1% vi nim thip nhit la 12.7% vi<br /> blnh quin ci 8 nim Ii21.6%.<br /> mi con giip bd sung kjp thdi nhing mOt cin ddi cia<br /> nln kinh t i , qua dd gdp phin cii thiln ddi sing Gii tri vi tic dO ting XNK. mic nhip silu vi<br /> nhin din. Do dd, Bnh hlnh xuit nhip khiu di trd ty l| nhip silu eg thi cia cie nim vi blnh quin<br /> thinh dl tii thu hit sg quan tim cia cic nhi hoach nim ci giai doan 2003-2010 dupe trinh bay d Bing<br /> djnh chinh sich. cic nhi nghiin ciu kinh t i v i gidi 01.<br /> doanh nhin. Kit qui gii tri XK. NK vi mic nhip silu qua<br /> Bai viit niy phin tich kit qui xuit nhip khiu cie nim (2003-2010) cd thi md t i qua Biiu dd 01.<br /> eia nude ta trong nhing nim gin diy so vdi sd li|u 2. Tinh hlnh xuit nhip khiu qua cic giai<br /> nhing nim cia giai doan trade khi gia nhip WTO. doan<br /> 1. Ting quan v l kim ngach xuit nhJp khiu 2.1. Giai doan tii nim 2003 din 20D6<br /> cia ViOt Nam til 20D3 din 2010 (NhBng nim tri/dc khi gia nh$p WTO)<br /> Trong 8 nim (2003-2010), cd 7 nim kit qui Trong 4 nim: Nim 2003 tic dO ting gii tri<br /> gii tri xuit khiu (XK) v i gii trj nhip khiu (NK) ting xuit khiu ting thip hon tic dO ting gii tri nhip<br /> iln. Duy cd nim 2009 do inh hudng cia khing khiu (20.6% so vdi 27,9%). cdn eic nim 2004.<br /> <br /> <br /> • Viln Khoa hoc Thing kl - Ting cgc Thing kl (Bd Ki hoach vi Biu tu)<br />  Phjn tich linh hinh m i l nbjp hhiu VUI Kam l i tbI i-a phap HIIO<br /> mMmmmI B B •<br /> Bing 1: Kim ngach XNK cia VIOI Nam qua c i c n i m tir 2003 d i n 2010<br /> <br /> <br /> Tri Oii XNK Mic nhip Lupng ting tuy|t dii Tic do ting<br /> Tl II nhdp siiu<br /> tri|u USD) siSu (tdlu USD) (%) (%)<br /> XK NK (fii|u USD) XK NK XK NK<br /> (t) HI r3/--«- m W W (S) (7) IS) =100-(3):(t)<br /> <br /> 2003 20149.3 25 255.8 5 106.5 3.443.2 5.510.2 20.6 27,9 25.3<br /> 2004 26.485.0 31.968.8 5.483,8 6.335.7 6713,0 31.4 26.6 20.7<br /> 2005 32.447,1 36761.1 4.314,0 5.962.1 4.792,3 22.5 15,0 13,3<br /> 2006 39.826.2 44 891.1 5 064,9 7.379,1 8.130.0 22,7 22.1 12,7<br /> 2007 48.561,4 62.682,2 14.120,8 8.735,2 17.791.1 21,9 39,6 29,1<br /> 2008 62.685.1 80 713.8 18.028.7 14.123.7 18.031,6 29,1 28.8 28.8<br /> 2009 57 096,3 69.948,9 12.852,6 -5.588.8 •10 765,0 -8.9 -13,3 22,5<br /> 2010 72.191.9 84.801.2 12 609,3 15.095,6 14.852,3 26.4 21,2 17,5<br /> B/q nam theo<br /> <br /> 2003 - 2006 29 726,9 34.719,2 4.992,3 5.780.0 6.286,4 24.3 22,8 16.8<br /> 2007-2010 60133.7 74 536,5 14.402.9 8 091,4 9.977.5 16.0 17.2 24,0<br /> 2003-2010 44.930.3 54.627,9 9,697,6 6.935,7 8132,0 20,1 20.0 21,6<br /> <br /> (Nguin: Sd lilu trong cS11 vl cot 2 dugc liy til Niln gtim ThSng kl cia TCTK cic nSm 2003 d(n 2010,<br /> Sdiigu trong cdt 3, cgt 4, cot 5, cot 6, cdt 7 vl cdt 8 dudc tinh toin til sdlilu da c6)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Bliu IS 01: an tri XNK vi mffc hh$p sleu cia Vilt Nam qua c i c him lU 2003 din 2010<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 2003 2004 2O05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010<br /> a G i i tr| x u i t khAu • G i i tri nhJlp khdu D GiA tr| nhAp s j e u<br /> <br /> <br /> 2005, 2006 t i c dO ting eic g l i ti\ XK diu cao hon Do tie dO XK Iudn cd tdc dO t i n g cao hon lie<br /> tcie dp ting eic g i i trj NK (31.4% so vpi 26.6%; dO ting cia g i i trj NK n l n ^ l | NS cia Vilt Nam<br /> 22,5% so vdi 16,0% v i 22.7% so vdi 22,1%). Tie qua c i c n i m da g i i m d i n t i 25,3% n i m 2003<br /> dd ting blnh quin n i m cia c i giai doan niy g i i trj xuing 20,7% n i m 2004 rdi 13,3% n i m 2005 vi<br /> XK ting 24,3% v i g i i trj NK ting 22,8%. 12.7% n i m 2006. T} 10 NS blnh quin cia 4 nim<br /> <br /> <br /> THONG TIN KHOA HOC THpNG KE<br /> Phia tich linh hinh xuit nhip khiu Vlil Nam til tbi ra nhip WTO THONC KE quic t l ' VA HOI NHAP<br /> <br /> (2003-2006) l i 16.8% l i 17,2% vi t} 10 NS l i 24%. So vdi mic blnh quin<br /> 2.2. Giai dopn t i nim 2007 din 2010 4 nim giai doan 2003 - 2006 thi tie dO ting blnh<br /> (Nhiing nim sau khi gia nh$p WTO) quin nim eia ci gii trj XK vi gii tq NK diu thip<br /> Nim 2007 (nim diu bin gia nhip WTO) gii tri hon, edn t} 10 NS thi cao hon.<br /> XK ting 21.9% v i gin bing tdc dO ting nim 2006. Cd thi md t i tdc dO ting gii tri XK, tic dO ting<br /> con gii trj NK ting rit manh (39,6% - cao nhit so gii tri NK vi t9 i| NS qua eic nim eia ei 2 giai<br /> vdi eic nim). Do NK ting cao nln t j 10 NS Iln tdi doan niy qua Biiu dd 02.<br /> 29,1%. Oin nim 2008 gii tri XK ting 29,1% - tie Tdc dO ting gii tn XK vi NK giai doan 2007-<br /> dO ting cao nhit so vdi cic nim trudc dd, cdn tdc 2010 blnh quin thip hon giai doan 2003-2006, chi<br /> dO ting gii trj NK d mic 28,8%, ty l | NS li 28,8%. yiu li do inh hudng cia khing hoing kinh t i toin<br /> CO thi ndi trong bai nim sau khi ViOt Nam gia nhip ciu lim kim ngach XNK nim 2009 giim manh, inh<br /> WTO flnh hlnh XNK phit triin khi manh, tie dO hudng ding kl din tic dO ting eia ei giai doan.<br /> ting XK blnh quin hal nim li 25,4% vi tdc dO ting Mil khic edn ed mOt phin li do nguyin tic tinh<br /> NK blnh quin hal nim l i 34,1%. Nim 2009, do inh toin tie dO ting, khi chl Blu nghiin ciu dat kit qui<br /> hudng nOng nl cia khing hoing kinh t i toin ciu cing cao thi khi ning ting thim dupe 1% lai cing<br /> nln ei XK vi NK cia Vilt Nam diu giim manh. So khd.<br /> vOi nam 2008, nim 2009 cd gii trj XK ehl bing Ty l| NS'giai doan 2007-2010 cao hdn giai<br /> 91,1% (giim 8,9%) v i gii tri NK chl bing 86,7% doan 2003-2006 chi yiu l i do gii tri NK cd tie dp<br /> (giim 13,3%). Nhung tdi nim 2010 XNK cia ViOt ting cao hon tie dp ting gii tri XK. Trong giai doan<br /> Nam nhanh chdng dupe khdi phgc vi dat kit qui niy gia tri NK eia cic nim 2007, 2008 vi 2010 cd<br /> dang phi'n khdi. So vdi nim 2009 gii trj XK ting tdc dO ting cao vl:<br /> 26,4% vi gli tri NK ting 21,2%. Niu so vdi nim - Ddi vdi XK, sau khi gia nhip WTO thi tai cie<br /> 2008 (nim cd gii tri XNK cao nhit so vdi tit ci cie nude ban hing khdng edn hing rio bio hO theo cam<br /> nim vl trude) thi gii tri XK da ting hon 16,2% vi kit vi ed sg xuit hi|n rio cin thuong mai mdi. Quy<br /> gii tri NKting hon 5,1%. trinh thi tgc XK ehua thuin tien, chi phi lien quan<br /> Blnh quin chung ci 4 nim (2007 - 2010) tic din djch vg (chuyin ehd, buu chinh viin thdng, kho<br /> dp tang blnh quin eia gii tri XK l i 16.0%. cia NK bai, cing) vi djch vg tii chinh ngin hing cdn cao.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 50<br /> 40<br /> 30<br /> 20<br /> 10<br /> 0<br /> 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br /> -10<br /> -20<br /> .^ -Tdc ddtdng<br />  THPNIS Kt quic TC VA HOI NH$P Phin ticb Bnh hlnb xuil nhSp hban VIdl Nam ID khi ra ahip W<br /> <br /> Cdng nghilp hS trp chua phit triin nln phii NK blu 3. Kit luOn vi kiin nghi<br /> hit nguyin vit HOu d l sin xuit hing XK. Cic dpanh a) Xuit khiu<br /> nghilp eung chua tin dgng triOt dl ipi Ich tivilc gia - Dga trin nhing phin tich trin, ching ta nhje<br /> nhip WTO, cic hiOp djnh thuong mai song phuPng thiy Bnh hlnh XK cia Vilt Nam ki t i khi ra nhip<br /> vi khu vgc d l khai thic hit film ning cia cic thj WTO mSc di cd nhiing nim gOp khd khin Idn, seng<br /> trudng Idn nhu Hda Kj^, Liln minh Chiu Au. Trung nhin Chung ting khi, tdng gii trj XK cia giai dogn<br /> Qud'c... Cdng tic xic Bin thuong mai cdn nhd II. rdi 2007 - 2010 l i 240,53 t^ USD, tic dO ting blnh<br /> rae, hl|u qui chua cao. Vi|t Nam Iudn bj chiu inh quin nim 16%.<br /> hudng cia biin dOng nln kinh titoin ciu. biin dOng - XK cia Vilt Nam sau khi ra nhip WTO da<br /> t i bin ngoii (nhu cic ci sic vl gli). mang lai nhilu cd hOi, khdng ehl tiip cin dupe vdi<br /> - Odl vdi NK vi NS thi do Vi|t Nam nhOng nim mpt sd cic thi trudng mdi ndi mi bin canh dd cdn<br /> qua chiu inh hudng cia nhing biin ddng vl gii ci tao ra cho mlnh mOt mdi trudng thuong mai dn dinh<br /> trin thi trudng thi gidi. NK hing blu ding bing cho xuit khiu hing hda, da dang hda thj trudng xuit<br /> phit. thu nhOp ting cao. cdng vdi vile khi Vi|t nam khiu v i dn djnh ngudn thu t i xuit khiu.<br /> gia nhSp td chic WTO thj trudng NK cia Vilt Nam - Cd ciu XK ed sg thay ddi ding kl Bi XK cic<br /> md rpng hpn. hing hda bin ngoii cung dl ding vio nggyin li|u thd sang cic m$t hing chi biin, qua dd<br /> thj trudng Vi|t Nam hon (do dupe miln giim thui XK thi hiln sg thay ddi tich cgc vl eo ciu kinh t l<br /> quan). Tiip dd do nhu ciu sin xuit hudng tdi XK vdi mic dO phit triin cao hdn. Mic di t^ trpng cia<br /> nln lupng NK ting d cic mOt hing nhu phin bdn. cic mat hing ndng sin vi khoing sin vin ddng vai<br /> sit thip vi kim loai. hoi chit, xing diu. tin dupe. trd quan trpng nhung sg ddng gdp cia ching dang<br /> Hpn nia. lin sdng diu tu nude ngoii gia ting khiin giim din. T9 trpng cia cic sin phim cdng nghilp<br /> cho nhu ciu NK d l diu tu md rOng sin xuit ting trong tdng kim ngach xgit khiu cd xu hudng ting<br /> theo. Cie doanh nghiOp trong nude cung gia ting din.<br /> diu tu. Bin canh dd. Nhi nude diy manh triin khai - Vi|t Nam trd thinh thinh viln eia WTO da rit<br /> cic cdng trinh Idn eung cin rit nhilg nguyin li|u thuOn Ipi cho hpp tic qudc t i giip cii thi|n Bip cin<br /> NK, va mOt yiu t i cung tic dOng din xu hudng NK cdng nghO hi|n dai, cii thiln hlnh inh "Made-in-<br /> l i do quin tinh vi kj' vpng vl sg phit triin manh Vietnam" eia Vi|t Nam vi dua din vi|e thgc thi bio<br /> cia nln kinh t i cing yiu t i diu cp (tao ra eon sit v| quyIn sd hOu tri bi| tdt hon ddi vdi nhing nhi<br /> nhip khiu mpt sd mOt hing nhu 0 td, thip, vi kim xuit khiu cia Vi|t Nam. Vi|c gia nhO'p WTO eung<br /> loai qu^ nhu ving....) • gdp phin lim ting tinh canh tranh cia eic mil<br /> Tuy Bnh hlnh XNK giai doan 2007-2010 cd g|p hing xuit khiu cia ViOt Nam.<br /> nhilu khd khin vi cd nhing inh hudng nhit dinh b) Nh$p khiu<br /> din tdc dO ting qua cic nim. song nhin chung vin - NK da dip Omg dupe cd bin nhu ciu cia nln<br /> cd ging vuon Iln vi dat dupe nhiing kit qui ding kinh t i vi dip ing nhu ciu vl trang thiit bj. phu<br /> khich 10. MOc di tic dp ting blnh quin gii trj XNK ting, nguyin li|u cho eic nginh kinh t i vi nhu elu<br /> giai doan 2007-2010 blnh quin thip hon giai doan Blu ding eia xa hpi dii vdi mOt sd mit hing treng .<br /> 2003-2006 nhung vin dat mic cao hpn lupng ting nude ehua sin xuit dupe, eung nhu nhim bio hO<br /> tuyOt dii blnh quin nim (8091,4 trilu USD so vdi mpt s i nginh trong nude vi phi hpp vpi Bin trlnh<br /> 5780,0 trilu USD). Nhd viy, dua gii trj XK diu hOi nhip kinh t i khu vgc v i thi gidi.<br /> ngudi nim 2006 (nim cudi cia giai doan trude) t i - Cd sg chuyin djch trong cd ciu mat hing ttieo<br /> 474 USD/nim Iln 831 USD/nim vio nim 2010 hudng ting t} trpng hing miy mdc thiit bj vi phu<br /> (nim cudi cia giai doan sau). ting khic. Cd ci'u niy thi hiln sg chi trpng diu td<br /> <br /> THONG TIN KHOA HOC THONG HE<br /> fbin tich llnh hlnb » i t nhip hbaa Vlil Nam til hhl ra ahIp WTO THONG KE quic Tt vA Hpi NHip<br /> <br /> cii Bin trang thiit bi trong nude. hing chit lupng cao nhung gii ri hon so vdi hing<br /> - Vilt Nam vin gii nguyin eic ddi tic NK chlnh NK,<br /> nhung chi yiu vin l i t i Chiu A trong 5 nim gin Sau khi gia nhOp WTO, ching ta Iu8n mong ehd<br /> diy Trung Qudc da vuon Iln trd thinh thj tradng NK mpt kit qui xuit khiu ting nhiy vpt, nhung thgc t i<br /> chinh cia VN vdi kim ngach vupt hon bin so vdi cic mi ta thiy nhilu hon dd li NK vi nhjp silu ting.<br /> thj trudng edn lai. Quy md NK vdi gii ci nguyin li|u thi gidi liln tgc<br /> ting manh dUdng nhiln khdng chl gdp phin rit<br /> quan trong diy quy mO vi ly l| nh|p khiu, nhip silu<br /> Ol day manh v l ting kim ngach vi ning cao eia nude ta ting cao, mi diy cung l i mdt nguyin<br /> hi|u qui cia XNK trong dl|u kiln ting cudng hOi nhin rit quan trpng diy tj l| lam phit cia nude ta<br /> nhlp qudc t i . xin dl xuit mOt sd kiin nghj sau: ting cao. Bin canh dd, cdn mpt vi'n dl khdng nhd<br /> - Giim sit NK chjt chl theo ding cam kit khic mi ching ta phii ginh ehju. Od l i , trong khi<br /> AFTA va WTO cung nhu nhiing quy djnh cia Vl|t gii nguyin li|u NK liln tgc ting nhung gii eic sin<br /> Nam, t i dd cd bi|n phip han chi NK. Die bi|t, phii phim XK chl ting "nhd gipt" nln Ipi nhuan sin xuit<br /> ting cudng giim sit chit lupng. ting cudng kilm tra kinh doanh liln tgc giim./.<br /> hing hoi NK cic mit hing budn bin qua biln gidi.<br /> Dl ban chi nhlp silu. cin chdng lang phi trong<br /> diu tu xiy dgng co bin. trong tilg ding v i s i dgng<br /> hpp 1} ngudn tii nguyin trong nude. Til ligu tham khio<br /> - Cic chlnh sich tii chlnh, fin dgng cho dig tu<br /> cing cin dupe kit hpp ddng bp vl giii phip. Thiit [1]. Vi|n quin ly kinh t i Trung uong. Tic ddng<br /> IIP cic hang rio.ky thuit, cic bi|n phip phi thui cua hdi nhjp kinh tiquic tidH vdi nin kinh tisau<br /> trong quin 1} xuit nhip khau, kilm tra chit lupng ba nim Vilt Nam gia nhjp WTO, nim 2010.<br /> hang xuit khiu, dOc bill ve v| sinh. an toin thgc [2]. MUTRAP II, Bio cio dinh gli tic ddng<br /> phim, gii gin vi dl cao uy tin cia thuong hilu Vi|t ting thi khi Vijt Nam trd thinh thinh vien cia WTO<br /> Nam; giim djnh chOt chl hing NK dim bio Blu din thay dii xuit nhjp khiu vi thi chi, nim 2008<br /> chuin dl sin xuit, luu thdng trin thj trudng nOi dja. (3]. WTO,<br /> - Phat triin cdng nghilp phg trp, cdng nghO http://wto.nelec.gov.vn/Usts/nh%20gi%20tc%20<br /> sin xuit hing thay thi hing NK; xiy dpng dupe ispForm.aspx?ID=27<br /> ngudn lao dpng ky thuOt cao, lay nghl gidi; ddi mdi [4]. Tdng ege Thdng kl,<br /> cOng nghl sin xuit vi quy trinh quin 1;; dl ting http://www,gso.gov.vn/defauit.aspx?tabid=433iid<br /> ning xuit; Bit kilm chl phi sin xuit, luu thdng; flm =3<br /> ra mat hing mdi vi cd Ipi thi so sinh. cd Bim ning [5). Tdng cgc Hii Quan,<br /> dIXK. http://www.customs.gov.vn/Lists/HoTroTruc<br /> - Duy tri ddi thoai giia cic doanh nghilp vdi Tuyen/ThongKeHaiQuan.aspx<br /> cie cip quin 1^. phit hiln nhanh. thio gd kjp thdi<br /> nhing vudng mic eia doanh nghilp. Cie doanh<br /> nghilp cin ning cao chit lupng hing hoi,tao cho<br /> hing hoi sic canh tranh vdi hing hoi NK. t i dd<br /> han ehi nhJp silu, ngudi filu ding vin dupe s i dgng<br />