Bài giảng Kinh tế vĩ mô: Chương 17 - Phạm Thế Anh

macro<br /> <br /> CH<br /> <br /> "<br /> <br /> kinh t v mô<br /> <br /> " # $<br /> <br /> N. Gregory Mankiw<br /> <br /> "<br /> 23<br /> .<br /> <br /> Bài gi ng c a Ph m Th Anh<br /> <br /> pham.theanh@yahoo.com<br /> (d ch và s a theo bài gi ng c a Ron Cronovich)<br /> © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved<br /> <br /> ôla theo giá n m 1996<br /> <br /> 2% &<br /> <br /> =<br /> <br /> T<br /> <br /> >. %<br /> 6@ A<br /> <br /> 4 5<br /> ? 0<br /> &B $ & 2.<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> F G<br /> <br /> I %<br /> <br /> 750<br /> 250<br /> 0<br /> 1975<br /> <br /> E<br /> 8<br /> <br /> 0<br /> <br /> O,<br /> <br /> A<br /> <br /> J. +<br /> <br /> RC<br /> <br /> &<br /> +<br /> <br /> J. +<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> P<br /> <br /> $6<br /> <br /> . +<br /> <br /> 1995<br /> <br /> 2000<br /> <br /> slide 3<br /> <br /> " +<br /> <br /> 7)<br /> <br /> $6<br /> <br /> $6<br /> <br /> $6<br /> <br /> 7)<br /> <br /> & 9+:<br /> &:C<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> 7)<br /> <br /> 2<br /> . & +%<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> slide 4<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> T<br /> T<br /> <br /> 5 +<br /> 5 +<br /> I &'<br /> I &' 2<br /> 2<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> A<br /> <br /> C<br /> <br /> $6<br /> <br /> SS<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> 1980<br /> 1985<br /> 1990<br /> Total<br /> Business fixed investment<br /> Residential investment<br /> Change in inventories<br /> <br /> Hai lo i doanh nghi p<br /> QC<br /> <br /> 6:<br /> <br /> P<br /> <br /> 500<br /> <br /> slide 2<br /> <br /> @ &H<br /> <br /> M , 1970-2002<br /> <br /> PT<br /> <br /> T<br /> P P T<br /> <br /> 1250<br /> <br /> nh kinh doanh<br /> <br /> L DM<br /> N<br /> L ( )<br /> L .<br /> B<br /> <br /> slide 1<br /> <br /> 1000<br /> <br /> ,<br /> <br /> J K<br /> <br /> .<br /> / 01<br /> / 01<br /> <br /> .<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> PT<br /> <br /> 1750<br /> <br /> )<br /> <br /> ,<br /> <br /> 1500<br /> <br /> -250<br /> 1970<br /> <br /> 6@ C<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> ut c<br /> <br /> &' (<br /> <br /> u t và các thành ph n c a nó<br /> 2000<br /> <br /> $6<br /> 7)<br /> <br /> 8 '<br /> ,8 <<br /> <br /> " -<br /> <br /> 4&<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> ut<br /> <br /> . +<br /> 9+:<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> * +%<br /> <br /> b n th n m<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br /> DE<br /> +<br /> <br /> !<br /> <br /> "<br /> <br /> 78<br /> <br /> <<br /> <br /> ng<br /> <br /> ut<br /> <br /> Các lo i<br /> <br /> ;<br /> <br /> M c tiêu c a ch<br /> <br /> NG 17<br /> <br /> AA<br /> <br /> $6<br /> $6<br /> ' CC<br /> '<br /> slide 5<br /> <br /> 1<br /> <br /> Th tr<br /> J. +<br /> 7) 6<br /> 2<br /> <br /> $6<br /> %<br /> 2<br /> <br /> U<br /> <br /> ' " V<br /> J. +<br /> <br /> Các nhân t<br /> <br /> ng cho thuê t b n<br /> giá thuê t<br /> b n th c t ,<br /> Y<br /> <br /> C<br /> <br /> W<br /> $6 "<br /> <br /> Z<br /> \<br /> <br /> cung<br /> t b n<br /> <br /> c ut b n<br /> (MPK)<br /> <br /> Y C<br /> <br /> giá thuê t<br /> b n cân<br /> b ng<br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> 7 ) J 22[<br /> <br /> L ng<br /> t b n<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> slide 6<br /> <br /> Y<br /> *<br /> ^ ↓ ;&<br /> ^ ↑! ;&<br /> ^ ↑" ;&<br /> 2 E =<br /> <br /> $6<br /> a<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> ba<br /> <br /> Y A<br /> <br /> ;<br /> <br /> B6<br /> a V& $<br /> 7)<br /> <br /> &<br /> 6C<br /> <br /> '<br /> &%<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> . +<br /> . +<br /> E<br /> &%<br /> <br /> c<br /> <br /> 6 +<br /> 5<br /> 2<br /> <br /> =<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> J.<br /> ^<br /> <br /> 6<br /> <br /> C<br /> <br /> ;ed<br /> 6 5<br /> <br /> ><br /> <br /> F<br /> <br /> 9<br /> \ &B A<br /> d 7I<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> FF;<br /> <br /> ∆<br /> <br /> . 5<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> X<br /> X<br /> X<br /> X<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> 6<br /> <br /> O,<br /> <br /> FF<br /> =<br /> <br /> X i Cg g X g A δ X g A<br /> Qg g A<br /> AQg<br /> ARg<br /> & ∆ Y<br /> Xgj<br /> Ag<br /> 6 ( )<br /> 6 0 )<br /> . 5<br /> 2<br /> 4<br /> 6<br /> <br /> 6<br /> × A<br /> X .<br /> +<br /> <br /> 2<br /> c<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> A∆<br /> <br /> 4<br /> <br /> fg<br /> A<br /> <br /> 5 2 2E 6 B<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> slide 9<br /> <br /> Chi phí t b n<br /> +δ −<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> )<br /> <br /> =<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> J<br /> <br /> h +:<br /> <br /> slide 7<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br /> 6 (<br /> P<br /> <br /> $6<br /> <br /> =<br /> <br /> Q−α<br /> <br /> 6 0 )<br /> δ× A<br /> PδX # $0 )<br /> ^ d 7I<br /> . 5<br /> 2<br /> −∆<br /> <br /> slide 8<br /> <br /> −∆<br /> <br /> )<br /> <br /> ^<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> +δ<br /> <br /> = α " (!<br /> <br /> =$<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> Chi phí t b n<br /> J<br /> <br /> Q<br /> !−α<br /> <br /> Chi phí t b n<br /> <br /> 4<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> α<br /> <br /> 2]<br /> +: + E<br /> )<br /> <<br /> =<br /> +: + - +* I <<br /> B6 =<br /> +:<br /> 2E F<br /> $ < +_ 2` .<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> =<br /> $6<br /> 2<br /> <br /> n giá thuê t b n<br /> <br /> # ="<br /> <br /> A<br /> <br /> Quy t nh u t c a các doanh<br /> nghi p cho thuê t b n<br /> J. +<br /> ' 0<br /> <br /> ng<br /> <br /> DM ;& + &B<br /> N<br /> Y<br /> * 2] =<br /> <br /> 2<br /> ' 0<br /> DM X<br /> N<br /> <br /> nh h<br /> <br /> &<br /> J<br /> <br /> i g<br /> Qg g<br /> i g<br /> Rg g<br /> jg<br /> − ig<br /> %'(<br /> &(<br /> slide 10<br /> <br /> 9∆<br /> <br /> A<br /> <br /> Y<br /> <br /> X πC<br /> <br /> 6 +<br /> c 5<br /> 2<br /> ; k δ − π= X ;) kδ =<br /> 6<br /> <br /> d<br /> <br /> 6<br /> d<br /> 5<br /> ^ .<br /> I<br /> ^ ( )<br /> d<br /> ^ # $0 )<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br /> 2<br /> 2<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> 2]<br /> 2]<br /> <br /> 6:<br /> 2<br /> <br /> &'<br /> <br /> ()<br /> <br /> &'<br /> E +<br /> <br /> +δ)<br /> <br /> &<br /> <br /> slide 11<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> u t ròng & t ng<br /> <br /> L i nhu n c a doanh nghi p cho thuê<br /> O<br /> <br /> l<br /> <br /> 5 +<br /> <br /> X<br /> <br /> B<br /> <br /> −<br /> <br /> b<br /> a<br /> <br /> $66 :<br /> <br /> ()<br /> <br /> +δ) X $<br /> <br /> B fg<br /> A<br /> $6<br /> P<br /> <br /> +<br /> mg +<br /> A<br /> <br /> E &<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> $6<br /> 2 C<br /> <br /> ;\<br /> l=<br /> <br /> $6<br /> <br /> 2]<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> ()<br /> <br /> −<br /> <br /> B 0<br /> <br /> ed<br /> <br /> 4<br /> l<br /> <br /> B 2]<br /> <br /> )()<br /> <br /> 5 )<br /> 6<br /> B<br /> <br /> +δ) +δ<br /> ed<br /> <<br /> Y<br /> <br /> +%<br /> <br /> QC<br /> QC<br /> RC<br /> RC<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> *Q<br /> <br /> a<br /> a<br /> +:<br /> +:<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> *<br /> <br /> *<br /> <br /> B<br /> B<br /> <br /> −(<br /> <br /> )()<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> slide 13<br /> <br /> −(<br /> <br /> )()<br /> <br /> +δ) +δ<br /> <br /> )<br /> <br /> B<br /> "<br /> <br /> )<br /> ,<br /> 6 C<br /> <br /> +δ) +δ<br /> <br /> ut<br /> <br /> 5 DM<br /> N<br /> 5<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> o<br /> /<br /> <br /> )Q<br /> *Q<br /> <br /> *<br /> <br /> *R<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> slide 15<br /> <br /> Thu Thu nh p Công ty:<br /> Thu ánh vào l i nhu n<br /> <br /> ut<br /> o<br /> o<br /> <br /> 2n &'<br /> l<br /> 2<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> (<br /> <br /> slide 14<br /> <br /> U<br /> U<br /> <br /> d<br /> -<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> "<br /> "<br /> 8<br /> 8<br /> <br /> +<br /> <br /> +δ<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> -<br /> <br /> *R<br /> <br /> Z<br /> Z<br /> <br /> = ∆<br /> <br /> * =*<br /> <br /> )R<br /> <br /> Thu và<br /> <br /> 0<br /> <br /> +δ)<br /> <br /> l 6<br /> C<br /> <br /> &' 2E 6 B<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> )Q<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> .<br /> 0<br /> <br /> Hàm<br /> <br /> 2<br /> &<br /> <br /> 6<br /> E<br /> <br /> =*<br /> <br /> )<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> I %<br /> E<br /> <br /> 0 F<br /> <br /> slide 12<br /> <br /> −(<br /> <br /> =*<br /> <br /> P * ;=<br /> I &' .<br /> <br /> ut<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> -<br /> <br /> )()<br /> <br /> X∆<br /> <br /> +<br /> <br /> +<br /> .<br /> <br /> Hàm<br /> * =*<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> −(<br /> <br /> \ &B A<br /> <br /> +δ)<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> .<br /> <br /> -<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> ut<br /> <br /> .<br /> ^<br /> <br /> I &'<br /> 6:<br /> E &<br /> B 9+:<br /> %<br /> c 5<br /> 6<br /> 2 =A G<br /> 0 F<br /> 8<br /> ^<br /> p %<br /> c 5<br /> A<br /> 6<br /> . $<br /> 5<br /> 2 C<br /> ^<br /> A %<br /> c 5<br /> B 6 .6<br /> 2 C<br /> ^<br /> p /<br /> A G%<br /> . U . )6 6<br /> d d 5<br /> 2<br /> B A<br /> + &B +<br /> $6 P ,2% .<br /> 0<br /> d d 2] 0 F C<br /> ^ \ &B A<br /> B6 F<br /> 0 F<br /> <br /> )<br /> )<br /> <br /> F<br /> F<br /> <br /> slide 16<br /> <br /> E<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> c &HS a<br /> ; .<br /> C<br /> 0 )<br /> a<br /> <br /> 9+:<br /> c<br /> &<br /> <br /> p<br /> <br /> . U. 0<br /> 5<br /> .<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br /> B 6 .6 .<br /> . U.<br /> a<br /> <br /> B<br /> 0<br /> <br /> B T<br /> V<br /> <br /> 0<br /> 0<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> B<br /> C<br /> slide 17<br /> <br /> 3<br /> <br /> Tín d ng thu<br /> 6<br /> )<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> + =<br /> <br /> 5 +<br /> %<br /> <br /> ! F<br /> <br /> 2<br /> \ &B A qJ<br /> P<br /> C<br /> <br /> -<br /> <br /> E<br /> a<br /> <br /> .<br /> <br /> ><br /> J 6<br /> <br /> 9I<br /> <br /> qJ<br /> $6 E<br /> <br /> Tobin q<br /> <br /> u t (ITC)<br /> <br /> .<br /> <br /> 0<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> r I<br /> <br /> 6<br /> d<br /> 0<br /> 46<br /> <br /> (<br /> <br /> + f QA . +<br /> ,-<br /> <br /> .<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> + m QA . +<br /> 2<br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> slide 18<br /> <br /> M i quan h gi a lý thuy t q và lý thuy t<br /> tân c<br /> i n mô t<br /> trên<br /> ><br /> J 6<br /> <br /> + =<br /> >.<br /> a<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> B<br /> <br /> /<br /> $<br /> 5<br /> <br /> DM f<br /> N<br /> G<br /> a<br /> B<br /> $6<br /> E . %<br /> <br /> 6<br /> %<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> A<br /> /<br /> <br /> 5 +C<br /> <br /> "<br /> U<br /> <br /> E &<br /> <br /> A . +<br /> %<br /> /<br /> <br /> P<br /> %<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> "<br /> U<br /> <br /> ,<br /> <br /> .<br /> <br /> E<br /> G<br /> +3 7 I<br /> <br /> $&<br /> OH<br /> <br /> I * &H 4<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> 01&o<br /> <br /> slide 22<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> ,<br /> a 6.<br /> $6<br /> 5 +<br /> <br /> a<br /> 2<br /> $6<br /> <br /> slide 19<br /> <br /> ng c phi u và GDP<br /> %<br /> P<br /> <br /> ,+d . &H E I<br /> / 46<br /> & >M<br /> \<br /> <br /> 2 U<br /> <br /> &H0<br /> 5<br /> 2<br /> . 46<br /> 2 +<br /> ,<br /> 7I<br /> I * &H 4<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> + '<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> slide 21<br /> <br /> ng c phi u và GDP<br /> P<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> W ed<br /> C<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> $60 F<br /> <br /> P<br /> <br /> Th tr<br /> <br /> ,+d . &H E I<br /> / 46<br /> & >M<br /> \<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> $6<br /> 46<br /> 5<br /> slide 20<br /> <br /> 46<br /> <br /> lC<br /> <br /> B<br /> ^ 0<br /> ^<br /> ^ +%<br /> ^ *<br /> <br /> RC >. 4 6<br /> <br /> ^<br /> ^ +%<br /> + '<br /> ^ *<br /> <br /> Th tr<br /> <br /> QC DE<br /> <br /> ng c phi u và GDP<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> P<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> A<br /> . % 5 +<br /> 4 6 ,A H<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> Th tr<br /> <br /> 0<br /> <br /> "<br /> U<br /> <br /> 6+<br /> 6+<br /> <br /> 46<br /> 5<br /> 2 6:<br /> " & a<br /> B 01&o<br /> a<br /> 2 C<br /> <br /> DM m<br /> N<br /> 6<br /> 2<br /> ! + &B<br /> A<br /> . %<br /> o<br /> A& +<br /> )6<br /> C<br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> 2<br /> 2<br /> <br /> p<br /> <br /> 6+<br /> 6+<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> $ U<br /> <br /> B & 0<br /> <br /> 2<br /> 2<br /> <br /> p<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> ,+d . &H E I<br /> / 46<br /> & >M<br /> \<br /> <br /> 5<br /> F<br /> <br /> . 46<br /> P ,6<br /> 7 &H<br /> )<br /> 2E F<br /> 8 0<br /> +<br /> " C<br /> 4<br /> &<br /> a 8<br /> +:<br /> B<br /> &'<br /> 5<br /> o<br /> /<br /> C<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> slide 23<br /> <br /> 4<br /> <br /> ng c phi u và GDP<br /> b<br /> <br /> -10<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> 30<br /> <br /> 6<br /> <br /> 20<br /> 4<br /> <br /> 10<br /> 0<br /> <br /> GDP th c t ,<br /> i so v i 4 quý tr<br /> <br /> 40<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> -30<br /> <br /> &' a<br /> ; < P<br /> e<br /> <br /> -50<br /> <br /> -4<br /> <br /> 1965<br /> <br /> 1970<br /> <br /> 1975<br /> <br /> 1980<br /> <br /> 1985<br /> <br /> 1990<br /> <br /> 1995<br /> <br /> 2000<br /> <br /> Stock prices<br /> Real GDP<br /> <br /> u t nhà<br /> 8<br /> I 5<br /> <br /> /Y<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> a 7<br /> .<br /> /<br /> <br /> %<br /> 8<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> 28<br /> "C<br /> <br /> ]<br /> 2<br /> <br /> . +<br /> 2)<br /> 0<br /> <br /> $66<br /> <br /> I<br /> "<br /> <br /> B<br /> .<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> a<br /> <br /> ; =<br /> <br /> E &<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> J<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> B<br /> <br /> < &'<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> I<br /> <br /> =<br /> <br /> $<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> u t nhà<br /> <br /> ' A */ A 6 :<br /> 8A<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> E I+<br /> ,H P ,&<br /> ,<br /> E<br /> <br /> .<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> slide 24<br /> <br /> b ?<br /> .<br /> /Y C<br /> <br /> ,<br /> <<br /> " a<br /> <br /> "C<br /> a<br /> B<br /> a 01&o<br /> A<br /> +<br /> $6 P , P a<br /> 6:<br /> C<br /> +<br /> $66<br /> I < &'<br /> 2 E<br /> GP 0<br /> o<br /> 0 F<br /> ,<br /> P<br /> a<br /> ? &I<br /> + a<br /> B<br /> $ "<br /> )6<br /> C<br /> <br /> -2<br /> <br /> -40<br /> <br /> * 4<br /> ,&<br /> P<br /> <br /> )<br /> <br /> 0<br /> <br /> -20<br /> <br /> $6 P<br /> <br /> &$<br /> <br /> % thay<br /> <br /> c<br /> <br /> 10<br /> <br /> 50<br /> <br /> Giá c phi u,<br /> i so v i 4 quý tr<br /> <br /> 60<br /> <br /> % thay<br /> <br /> Nh ng ràng bu c tài chính<br /> c<br /> <br /> Th tr<br /> <br /> slide 25<br /> <br /> c xác<br /> <br /> nh nh th nào<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> J<br /> 7<br /> .<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> &<br /> <br /> &H<br /> . * 2]<br /> 8C<br /> <br /> 8<br /> &H<br /> <br /> &<br /> >. * 2]<br /> a<br /> <br /> 7<br /> .<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> J<br /> b a<br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> u t nhà<br /> ; =<br /> /<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> c xác<br /> 8<br /> <br /> ;2= J<br /> <br /> J<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> slide 26<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> slide 27<br /> <br /> u t nhà ph n ng th nào v i<br /> s gi m sút c a lãi su t<br /> <br /> nh nh th nào<br /> ; =<br /> <br /> '<br /> /<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> %<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> ;2= J<br /> <br /> J<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> '<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> J<br /> <br /> J<br /> <br /> J<br /> b a<br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> J<br /> /<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> b ?<br /> <br /> *H<br /> <br /> b a<br /> <br /> 8<br /> slide 28<br /> <br /> CHAPTER 17<br /> <br /> /<br /> <br /> 8<br /> <br /> 2<br /> <br /> Investment<br /> <br /> b ?<br /> <br /> *H<br /> 8<br /> slide 29<br /> <br /> 5<br /> <br />