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Thực trạng thu hút đầu tư vào các khu công nghiệp ở tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế

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Nghiên cứu này được thực hiện nhằm phân tích thực trạng thu hút đầu tư vào các khu công nghiệp (KCN) ở trên địa bàn tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế thông qua sử dụng phương pháp thống kê mô tả với số liệu, thông tin thứ cấp được thu thập từ các cơ quan liên quan ở địa phương. Mời các bạn cùng tham khảo!

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  1. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 CURRENT SITUATION OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTION TO INDUSTRIAL ZONES IN THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE THỰC TRẠNG THU HÚT ĐẦU TƯ VÀO CÁC KHU CÔNG NGHIỆP Ở TỈNH THỪA THIÊN HUẾ Tran Van Hoa, Ass.PhD, Pham Xuan Hung,PhD Nguyen Manh Hung, PhD University of Economics, Hue University pxhung@hce.edu.vn Abstrast The aim of this research is to analyses the current situation of investment attraction to in- dustrial zones (IZs) in Thua Thien Hue province by utilizing descriptive statistic methods to analy- ses secondary data collected from local government office. The results show that projects that are newly granted investment certificates in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province are constantly supplemented every year and accumulated investment capital for implementing proj- ects has continuously increased in recent years. However, the occupancy rate in these IZs is still low and lacks of high-tech projects. Poor infrastructure in IZs and the low quality of human re- sources are still barriers to attracting investment in industrial zones. In order to attract more in- vestors in the coming years, the local government need to spend more money on infrastructure investment (water treatment plants), providing incentives for high-tech projects and improving the quality of public services. Keywords: Investment Attraction; Industrial Zones; Thua Thien Hue Tóm tắt Nghiên cứu này được thực hiện nhằm phân tích thực trạng thu hút đầu tư vào các khu công nghiệp (KCN) ở trên địa bàn tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế thông qua sử dụng phương pháp thống kê mô tả với số liệu, thông tin thứ cấp được thu thập từ các cơ quan liên quan ở địa phương. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy, số lượng các dự án được cấp mới giấy chứng nhận đầu tư vào các KCN ở trên địa bàn tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế tăng hàng năm và lũy kế vốn đầu tư thực hiện các dự án liên tục tăng trong những năm gần đây. Tuy nhiên, những điểm yếu về cơ sở hạ tầng KCN và chất lượng nguồn nhân lực thấp vẫn là những rào cản trong thu hút đầu tư vào các KCN. Để thu hút đầu tư vào các khu công nghiệp trong thời gian tới, chính quyền địa phương cần ưu tiên đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng khu công nghiệp (đặc biệt là các nhà máy xử lý nước thải), thực hiện các ưu đãi cho các dự án công nghệ cao và cải thiện chất lượng dịch vụ công. Từ khóa: Thu hút đầu tư; Khu công nghiệp; Thừa Thiên Huế 289
  2. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 1. Introduction The establishment of industrial zones (IZs) since the years after Doi Moi (1986) in Vietnam has positively contributed to the socio-economic development of the country. First of all, there is a strong wave of foreign investment in industrial zones, receiving advanced manufacturing companies from developed countries, at the same time solving many jobs for workers and in- creasing bugdet for localities [6]. Promoting the investment in industrial zones is considered as leverage to shift the local economic structure, contributing to the success of national industriali- zation and modernization [8]. Along with the tourism service sector, Thua Thien Hue province has identified industrial development as the key of economic development in order to shift the economic structure towards service - industry - agriculture [4]. Therefore, in recent years, Thua Thien Hue province has fo- cused on mobilizing all resources, taking advantage of the local natural conditions and making efforts in administrative reform to attracting investment capital to industrial zones in the province. Before 1998, there was only Phu Bai Industrial Zone established in Thua Thien Hue but up to now, there have been 6 industrial zones with 197 enterprises and creating more than 29 thousand jobs [2]. However, in compared to the potential advantages of the province, the investment attraction in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue is still low. On average, the increasing numbers of registed project per year in each industrial zone was less than 10 projects. In addition, the scale of project is low and lack of high technology projects; there are many projects that cannot be implemented after being granted certificates because lack of captal; the occupancy rate in most industrial zones is low [1], [2]. This study is carried out to evaluate the ability to attract investment in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province, to point out the successes, limitations and barriers in attracting inve- stment capital in industrial zones, thereby suggesting some policies for the government officers. 2. Theoretical framework and research method Previous studies on investment attraction in economic zones and industrial zones come from three frameworks that were basis for assessing and analyzing the ability of industrial zones and economic zones to attract investment. Electic Theory: Dunning (1997) states that there are 3 groups of factors to attract investors, including: advantage of ownership; geographical advantages; and domestic advantages. The eclectic theory explains why international investors decide to choose a country to invest in [5]. This theoretical approach is often to do in-depth research on foreign investment, assessing national issues such as politics, science and technology. Theory of investment environment and institutions: This approach is often applied by researchers in Vietnam to explain the relationship between investment attraction and institutional capacity (expressed through capacity index competition at provincial level PCI) [8]. The PCI index is considered one of the criteria for institutional evaluation - a variable factor that has a great influence on attracting investment at local level. However, this theory does not include other factors such as geographic location and infrastructure. 290
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 Local Marketing Theory: According to Kotler et al., local marketing is a set of programs implemented locally to improve competitiveness and develop economy. Marketing programs aim to enable localities to have human-generated resources and advantages instead of relying only on natural factors such as geographical location and natural resources to attract investors. This means that local image will become more attractive in the assessment of target customer groups, including investors through promoting local marketing programs [7]. In the scope of this study, the author approaches the theory of investment environment and local marketing to evaluate the current situation of attracting investment in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province. Accordingly, the study focuses on evaluating the process of attracting investment capital both in terms of quantity and quality through the use of a system of indicators on the number of projects, capital scale, investment structure, and rate of capital investment, oc- cupancy rate, .. in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province; analyzing related issues such as local attraction policies; public administrative services; infrastructure conditions; human resour- ces; geographic location and natural resources in order to explain the achieved results, the short- comings in the process of attracting investment in industrial zones. This research is mainly based on secondary information, data collected from reports of the Management Board of Economic and Industrial Zones (MBEIZ) of Thua Thien Hue Province; documents and reports of the Department of Planning and Investment; Thua Thien Hue Provincial People’s Committee, Thua Thien Hue Statistical Yearbook, PAPI Provincial Governance and Pu- blic Administration Performance Index, PCI Provincial Competitiveness Index for the assessment, analysis. On the basis of secondary information, descriptive statistics method is used to assess the current situation of investment attraction in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province. 3. Findings and discussion 3.1. The investment attraction in industrial zones of Thua Thien Hue province By the end of 2019, there are 6 industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province that have been established at 6 districts and towns including: Phu Bai Industrial Zone (in Huong Thuy town), Phu Da (Phu Vang), Quang Vinh (Quang Dien), La Son (Phu Loc), Tu Ha (Huong Tra) and Phong Dien Industrial Zone (Phong Dien District). According to the Management Board of the Economic and Industrial Zones of the province, the total number of enterprises officially operating in the industrial zones was 197 enterprises, with 29.2 thousand employees at the end of 2019. It is es- timated that the total land arranged for the construction of industrial zones is 2.4 thousand hec- tares, mainly concentrated in Phu Bai and Phong Dien Industrial Zone. Among the 6 existing Industrial Zones, Phu Bai Industrial Zone has the highest rate of land occupancy. This could be explained by the reason that Phu Bai Industrial Zone was established early, the infrastructure sys- tem has been invested and built quite completely and especially located in a much more favorable position than other 5 Industrial Zone. Specifically, it is located only about 20km from Hue city, near Phu Bai international airport and is the northern gateway to Chan May - Lang Co economic zone and Da Nang city. 291
  4. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 (Source: MBEIZ of Thua Thien Hue Province) Figure 1. Information on industrial zones of Thua Thien Hue province In the period 2016 - 2019, the number of new registered annually investment projects in industrial zones is 24 projects and the total registered investment capital is 4.11 trillion VND. On average, in this period, there were about 6 projects newly granted investment certificates, with an average total capital of about 1 trillion VND. However, the number of projects newly granted investment certificates in this period has decreased significantly compared to the period 2011-2015. In the period 2011 - 2015, the number of projects are newly granted investment cer- tificates are 47 projects, total investment capital of 17.5 trillion dong. Table 1. Number of investment projects in industrial zones of Thua Thien Hue province 2016-2019 Indicator Unit 2011-2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1. Number of newly granted Project 47 9 4 5 6 projects - Number of foreign Project 9 4 0 3 investment projects 2. Newly registered Billions 17.543,8 1.292,8 999,4 600,0 1.219,5 investment capital dong - Foreign investment capital Billions 4.797,4 418,3 - 800,0 dong 3. Total number of projects Project 91 99 100 98 105 that have been granted investment certificates - Number of foreign Project 19 23 22 23 24 investment projects (Source: MBEIZ of Thua Thien Hue Province) 292
  5. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 By the end of 2019, there were 105 projects granted investment certificates, of which the majority were domestic investment projects, with 81 projects, accounting for 77%, corresponding to the total registered capital is VND 11.5 trillion, accounting for 59.76%. Although the number of projects coming from foreign investors is less than that of domestic ones, the scale of inves- tment per project is quite high. Average investment capital of a project newly granted investment certificate by a foreign partner in the period 2011 - 2015 is 533 billion VND (while domestic project is 335 billion VND); correspondingly in the period 2016 - 2019 is 174 billion dong (170 billion dong of domestic projects). Currently, foreign investors in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province mainly come from countries such as Korea, China, the United States, Hong Kong and Japan. (Source: MBEIZ of Thua Thien Hue Province) Figure 2. Structure of registed projects in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province according to the sector If it is classified by industry, the investment projects in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province mainly include the garment industry, with the amount accounting for 29% of the total investment projects actually implemented corresponding to 22.82% of total investment capital (as of the end of 2019); followed by mineral processing, production of construction materials. Thus, investment projects in Industrial Zones in the province mainly focus on setors that were depending on exploiting local advantages such as labor resources, using local materials. Mean- while, investment projects with a high technology are very limited. 3.2. Results and limitations in attracting investment in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue In recent years, Thua Thien Hue province has made great efforts in formulating and im- plementing policies to attract investors to register their project in industrial zones. First of all, the policy of leasing land at a preferential price and extending the lease term. Currently, the rental price of land with infrastructure in industrial zones of Phu Bai, La Son and Phong Dien ranging from 0.6 to 0.7 USD /m2/year, the lower price is applied in other industrial zones in the province according to the infrastructure conditions. Compared with industrial zones in the northern and southern provinces, the land rental price in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province is many times lower. At the end of 2019, the average land rental price in industrial zones in the Northern provinces is 99 USD /m2/ rental cycle, the Southern provinces is 101 USD/m2/rental cycle. while 293
  6. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 the average rental rate in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province is only 18.07 USD / m2 / rental cycle (the highest is Phu Bai Industrial Zone, at 37USD/m2/rental cycle), with land lease term for 50 years. Table 2. Investment incentive and support policies in Thua Thien Hue province Policy /support, Mode of supports, incentives incentives lists 1. Preferential policies on land and taxes 1.1. Unit price for leasing The lowest price according to the current regulations of the land for investment in State; exempted from land rent for 15 years from the date of the infrastructure project operation 1.2. Preferential corporate The preferential tax rate of 17% applies in 10 years; Tax income tax exemption for 2 years, reduction of 50% of tax payable for the next 4 years for new investment projects. 1.3. Import tax incentives To be exempt from import tax on goods imported to invest on fixed assets 2. Investment support policy 2.1. Support for Infrastructure construction and business investment projects are infrastructure supported 30% of the investment on wastewater treatment plants (not exceeding 10 billion VND). 2.2. Support for site clear- Priority projects received in advance VND 10 billion /project ance pay for site clearance. The rest of the funding will be financed by the investor. 2.3. Training supports The provincial government support VND 1 million per training course for one worker to improving their skills. 2.4. Supporting for Informa- The provincial government supports 50% of the land rental for tion Technology Projects Information Technology Projects in the first 3 years(Source: Decision No. 19/2017 / QD-UBND dated April 21, 2017 of Thua Thien Hue Provin- cial People’s Committee) (Source: Decision No. 19/2017 / QD-UBND dated April 21, 2017 of Thua Thien Hue Provincial People's Committee) Along with the preferential policy on land, Thua Thien Hue province has implemented tax incentives, in particular, projects located in industrial zones will receive preferential corporate income tax rate of 17% during 15 years since the date the projects start operating; corporate in- come tax exemption for 2 years, 50% reduction of tax payable for the next 4 years for income from implementing new investment projects. The projects on construction of industrial zone in- frastructure such as building wastewater treatment plant are supported 30% of the investment 294
  7. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 cost. Investment projects in the information technology sector are supported with 50% of the land rental in the first 3 years. In addition, Thua Thien Hue provincial government support VND 1 millon per training course for one worker to improving their skills. Improving the business environment and administrative procedure reform are also seen as the efforts of Thua Thien Hue province to attract investment in Industrial Zones. Since 2017 on- wards, Thua Thien Hue province has actively promoted the administrative procedure reform in all fields and achieved many positive results. The operation of the administrative centers from the provincial to district levels have helped Thua Thien Hue province move towards building a current, friendly, transparent and efficient administration. The 2019 PAPI report shows that Thua Thien Hue is ranked in the group of provinces with the highest e-governance scores in the country, ranked 7th out of 63 provinces, many times higher than the provinces in North Central region. In addition, the provincial competitiveness index of Thua Thien Hue province has improved signif- icantly, from 29th in 2015 to 20th in 2019. Indicators of business environment such as legal insti- tutions, labor training, transparency, time, informal costs, equal competition and dynamics have been significantly improved compared to previous years [9]. This result improves image of the local government in the eyes of investors and promote investment attraction in industrial zones. Besides the results achieved, the process of attracting investment in industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province is revealing many shortcomings. Along with the disadvantages of cli- mate and weather, the lack of synchronous infrastructure, including the poor transport system connecting the industrial zone to ports and warehouses; underdeveloped logistics services and inadequate technical infrastructure systems inside industrial zones are major barriers to attracting investment in industrial zones. A recent report from the MBEIZ of Thua Thien Hue Province said that, except for Phu Bai Industrial Zone, the remaining industrial zones do not have a centralized wastewater treatment system, poor transportion systems [2]. It could be cited in the case of Quang Vinh Industrial Zone - an industrial zone established in 2013, but so far there has not been any project implemented. There are many essential items inside the industrial zone (centralized waste treatment area, internal roads, trees, ...) and a lot of land has not been cleared. The PCI 2019 report shows that the index of infrastructure components in industrial zones/clusters of Thua Thien Hue province is much lower than other provinces and not highly appreciated by investors. In addition, the quality of labor in Thua Thien Hue province is still a big barrier for Thua Thien Hue to attract investors in industrial zones especially Information Technology projects. The above limitations have led to the low capacity of local government in attracting in- vestment capital into industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province. During the period of 2013 - 2019, the implementation of registered investment projects was very slowly, with the ratio of im- plemented and registed investment capital in industrial zones below 10%. Many projects are un- able to implemented and are forced to withdraw. 295
  8. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 (Source: MBEIZ of Thua Thien Hue Province) Figure 3. Investment capital situation for project implementation in industrial ones of Thua Thien Hue province 4. Conclusion and policy implications To restructure the economy in the direction of service - industry - agriculture, in which in- dustrial development and tourism as the keys of economic development is the important objective stated in the overall plan of socio-economic development of Thua Thien Hue province [4]. This shows that the implementation of promotion policies to attract investors to industrial zones in Thua Thien Hue province has really become urgent in order to address the goal of economic plan- ning. Also, it contributes to the efficient exploitation and use of local resources, creates jobs and increases income for local people. However, the current policies of Thua Thien Hue province are still unable to attract domestic and foreign investors to invest in industrial zones. From the analysis results, this study gives a number of recommendations for policy makers to promote investment attraction in industrial zones in the coming time in Thua Thien Hue province. Firstly, the current priority solutions for atracting investment in IZs in Thua Thien Hue is to speed up the site clearance, building the internal traffic system in the industrial zone; upgrading the roads connecting the industrial zone with national highways and Chan May ports. Encourage investors to participate in infrastructure projects in Izs will help improving the infrastructure sys- tem and reducing dependence on the state budget. Secondly, it is neccassy to transform the industrial zone model in Thua Thien Hue pro- vince towards the development of industrial clusters and increase the connectivity among indust- rial zones to meet the demand of material supply and production. In addition, it is necessary to develop priority policies for high-tech industries in order to to create more added value for the industry and exlpoit effectively the use of local human resource. 296
  9. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 Thirdly, continue to reform of administrative procedures to create maximum favorable con- ditions for investors. The Provincial People’s Committee should assign the Management Board of Economic and Industrial Zones as the focal point to receive and support the settlement of in- vestment procedures in the industrial zones under the “one-stop, on-site” mechanism; continue to reform local institutions to increase transparency, equality, and reduce unofficial costs. This is considered a cross-cutting task to create a good business environment for investors. Fourthly, it is necessary to review and evaluate the implementation progress of projects that have been granted certificates but cannot be implemented to avoid wasting resources. Pro- viding a systematic database on investment procedures, labor information, investment potentials and opportunities in industrial zones to potential investors. REFERENCES 1. Ban Quản lý khu kinh tế, công nghiệp, UBND tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế, (2019), Báo cáo về việc xây dựng kế hoạch phát triển kinh tế - xã hội năm 2018, số 1033/BC-KKTCN, Thừa Thiên Huế ngày 04/8/2017. 2. Ban Quản lý khu kinh tế, công nghiệp, UBND tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế, (2019), Báo cáo tổng kết 10 năm thực hiện kết luận số 48 của Bộ Chính trị, số 259/BC-KKTCN, Thừa Thiên Huế ngày 15/3/2019. 3. CECODES, VFF-CRT, RTA & UNDP, (2020), Chỉ số Hiệu quả Quản trị và Hành chính công cấp tỉnh ở Việt Nam (PAPI) 2019: Đo lường từ kinh nghiệm thực tiễn của người dân, NXB Thanh Niên, Hà Nội. 4. Chính phủ, (2009), Quy hoạch tổng thể phát triển kinh tế - xã hội tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế đến năm 2020, Quyết định số 86/2009/QĐ-TTg, Hà Nội, ngày 17/6/2009. 5. Dunning JH (1988), The Electric Paradigm of International Production: A Restatement and Some Possible Extensions. Journal of International Business Studies, 19:1-31. 6. Nguyen Tien Dzung , Nguyen Anh Tuan , Do Phu Tran Tinh, (2017), The Role of Investment Attraction in Vietnamese Industrial Zones and Economic Zones in the Process of International Economic Integration, The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 4(3), 27-34. 7. Kotler, P., Hamlin, M. A., Rein, I., & Haider, D. H, (2002), Marketing Asian Places: Attracting Investment, Industry, and Tourism to Cities, States and Nations, John Wiley & Sons. 8. Le Thi Lan and Nguyen Duc Viet (2018), Factors Affects Investment Decisions of Enterprises into Vietnam’s Economic Zones, J Glob Econ,, Volume 6, Issue 1, 1000280, ISSN: 2375-4389. 9. VCCI, (2020), Báo cáo chỉ số năng lực cạnh tranh cấp tỉnh PCI của Việt Nam năm 2019, NXB Thanh Niên, Hà Nội. 297
  10. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 IN SEARCH FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT OF EUROPEAN-VIETNAM FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (EVFTA) ON VIETNAM’S SEAFOOD EXPORT: A SMART SIMULATION ANALYSIS ĐÁNH GIÁ TÁC ĐỘNG TIỀM NĂNG CỦA HIỆP ĐỊNH THƯƠNG MẠI TỰ DO VIỆT NAM EU (EVFTA) ĐẾN XUẤT KHẨU THỦY SẢN VIỆT NAM: NGHIÊN CỨU ÁP DỤNG GIẢ ĐỊNH SMART MSc. Doan Nguyen Minh - Thuongmai University MSc. Tran Thu Thuy - University of Economics and Business, VNU minhdn@tmu.edu.vn Abstract As the fifth largest seafood exporter to the EU, Vietnam possess the potential to improve EU market share with the commitments under the European-Vietnam free trade agreement (EVFTA). This paper attempts at applying SMART simulation based on Partial Equilibrium theory to quantify the potential impact of EVFTA on Vietnam’s seafood export trade flow on HS-4 digits level and contributes to the limited literature of ex-ante effect estimation of new generation FTAs on trade flow. SMART results show a rather positive prospect for Vietnam seafood export as EU’s tariff is abolished, however, a heterogeneity in growth rate across different product codes can be observed. Most noticeably, real growth in trade volume concentrate mainly on already highly- traded products between Vietnam and the EU namely HS code 0306 and 0304. However, real growth rate can be seen focus on other, less demanded codes averaging around 60%. Further- more, HS code 0303 is expected to enjoy exceptional real growth rate of more than 200%. Base on the result derived from SMART simulation, this paper also attempts to suggest certain policy implications for Vietnam government and business to fully take advantage of tariff liberalization as the effect of EVFTA. Keywords: EU, EVFTA, Seafood export, SMART, Vietnam Tóm tắt Với vị trí là nước xuất khẩu thủy sản lớn thứ năm sang thị trường châu Âu, Việt Nam sẽ có những cơ hội rất lớn trong việc tang thị phần xuất khẩu sang thị trường này với sự hỗ trợ của các cam kết trong hiệp định thương mại tự do Việt Nam-EU (EVFTA). Bài viết nhắm đến việc lượng hóa các tác động tiềm năng của hiệp định EVFTA lên xuất khẩu thủy sản Việt Nam sử dụng giả định SMART dựa trên lý thuyết cân bằng bán phần (PE) và dữ liệu xuất khẩu thủy sản theo mã HS 4 số. Kết quả của SMART cho thấy tăng trưởng tích cực của xuất khẩu thủy sản Việt Nam dưới tác động của EVFTA. Tuy nhiên sự tăng trưởng này phân phối tương đối không đồng đều. Mức tăng trưởng thuần túy tập trung chủ yếu vào các mặt hàng truyền thống, đã được trao đổi nhiều giữa hai khu vực như mã HS 0306 hoặc 0304. Tuy nhiên, tăng trưởng thực chất của các mặt hàng khác lại có xu hướng cao hơn, ở mức trung bình là 60%. Đặc biệt, mã HS 0303 có sự tăng trưởng thưc đột biến ở mức 200%. Dựa vào kết quả của giả định SMART, nhóm tác giả cũng đưa ra các hàm ý chính sách hướng tới chính phủ và các doanh nghiệp Việt Nam nhằm nắm bắt các cơ hội mà EVFTA đưa ra. 298
  11. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 Từ khóa: EU, EVFTA, Xuất khẩu thủy sản, SMART, Việt Nam 1. Introduction The Vietnam – European free trade agreement (EVFTA) signed in 30/6/2019 is an impor- tant addition promoting trade between Viet Nam and the European region. EVFTA aims to elim- inate import tariff of 99% of goods traded within the members in the period of 7 to 10 years. With the liberalization of trade, Vietnam’s products, especially products related to textile, agri- cultural and fisheries, enjoy opportunities to increase in volume of export. Not only dedicated to Vietnam, EVFTA also has the potential to promote overall export of EU members to Vietnam substantially, specifically products related to electronic equipment, cars component, etc… With regards to seafood trade, Europe is an integral import market for Vietnam’s products. In 2019, the EU ranked 4th in list of largest seafood markets of Vietnam, reflected by enormous import volume of 1.3 billion dollars which took up 15.12% of Vietnam total seafood exportation (Min- istry of agriculture and rural development, 2020). Vietnam’ seafood trading structure with the EU comprises of varied products which included shrimp (690 million USD in 2019), tuna (140 million USD) and catfish (235 million USD). Despite the substantial trade flow of seafood products between two regions, Vietnam’s seafood export to the EU sill face relative high barrier to trade in form of import tariff. To be spe- cific, 50% of Vietnam seafoods face from 0% to 20% tariff rate, and 50% of products face 5.5 % to 26% tariff rate. This tariff level is considered not high in relation to other sectors such as au- tomobiles or meats, however, the wide coverage of tariff has detrimental impact on Vietnam sea food trade flow. As a result, the commitment to abolish import tariff (immediately with 50% of product lines and between 3 to 5 years with the rest 50%) derived from EVFTA will certainly boost seafood trading volume from Vietnam to EU members. However, the increasing trade be- tween Vietnam and EU will create a diversion effect which negatively influence trade between Vietnam and non-participators of the free trade agreement. Therefore, carefully analyzing the seafood trade flow under the influence of EVFTA is essential to obtain a complete assessment of the agreement allowing Vietnam’s government and businesses to have adequate preparation for the future. This paper aims at using Partial Equilibrium theory (PE) and the Single Market Partial Equilibrium Simulation Tool (SMART) to assess the potential impact of EVFTA on Vietnam seafood trade flow reported in 4 digits HS level. Welfare effect as well as the effect on products level export and EU members will be taken into consideration. 2. Literature review Research dedicated to impact of free trade agreements is no longer as a new field in inter- national economics, as intensive contribution has been made to analyze fluctuations in trade in- fluenced by liberalize commitment between nations. However, the expansion of bilateral and multilateral agreements in recent times has erect opportunity for research, especially with the re- cent establishment of deeply integrated multilateral trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) or more related to the paper topic, EVFTA. Furthermore, the heterogeneity in research goal and availability of data provokes a range of research utilizing different methods. 299
  12. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 Ex-post analyses on free trade agreements’ influences often apply gravity model framework on panel data to quantify the effect of tariff and non-tariff abolishment on nations’ trade flow within a certain period. A range of papers have been dedicated to determining the effectiveness of free trade agreement internationally, Baier and Bergstrand (2007) examined a data set com- prised of 96 potential trading partners from the period from 1960 to 2000, in order to determine the impact of existing trade agreements on volume of international trade. Using country specific and year fixed effect method to account for multilateral resistant term (MRT) and trade agree- ments endogeneity, the authors found that, on average, an FTA approximately doubles trade vol- ume between members in a 10-year period. Revisiting the subject, Baier and Bergstrand (2009) implemented nonparametric estimation, specifically matching econometric (choosing treated and control countries in order to determine heterogeneity in outcome) and discover that, the results were relatively similar t results yielded from gravity estimate, which is average long-run effect of an FTA of 100%. However, global-scale research is often obstructed by the availability, relia- bility as well as cost of gathering data. Furthermore, estimation on global level data is often crit- icized with the neglection of heterogeneity in FTA’s level of integration. These challenges pave ways to research implementing national level data set. Chandran (2018) using gravity model and panel data of India trade aimed at determining the role of India-ASEAN free trade agreement on promoting overall India’s export. The author found that, after correcting for potential bias, the establishment of trade deal between India and ASEAN significantly elevate total export volume of India. Lateef, Tong and Riaz (2018) investigated the effect of China - Pakistan free trade agree- ment (CPFTA) on Pakistan and China agriculture trade using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likeli- hood (PPML) estimation and trading data between the 2 countries and 110 partners. Surprisingly, the result yielded suggest an increasing in agriculture export from Pakistan to China but not from China to Pakistan under the impact of CPFTA. Jagdambe and Kanan (2020) analyzed the trade diversion and trade creation effect of ASEAN – India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) on agri- culture trade based on trade data of 50 countries for the period 2005 – 2014. By correcting for zero trade flow and heteroscedascity, AIFTA was founded to have stronger trade creation than trade diversion effect. Hndi, Maitah and Mustofa (2016) analyzed the effect of certain FTAs on trade of selected North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia). Implementing gravity model, the result showed that involvement in FTA associates with increase in trade flow in agriculture. To be more specific, trade agreement could increase volume of agriculture trade between members by approximately 39%. However, implication of ex-post analyses is limited by the availability of data, as gravity estimation demands data of trade flow under the influence of FTA over time which is generally unavailable with new established FTA. This problem gives rise to a range of ex-ante research using simulation tool rather than estimation to evaluate the potential impact of newly committed agreements. A range of research utilize Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) theory to sim- ulate scenario of tariff - free market in order to derive effect of FTA on trade. Ko and Ito (2017) implement Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) on the basis of CGE to evaluate the effect of Japan -Korea free trade agreement on agricultural trade. According to the analysis, with the cut in tariff, total sum of import and export to GDP rises by 1% while labor supply increase by 8% and real wage (wage relatives to products prices) enjoy a 1% increase. Sagdar and Nakajima 300
  13. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 (2019) on the basis of CGE found that all members of Northeast Asia FTAs will benefit from the establishment of these FTAs, especially in welfare gains and real GDP expansions. Ali (2017) with the data of GTAP 7 database found that the Pakistan – Turkey will have uneven distribution of gains as Turkey was suggested, by the result, to be more beneficial compared to Pakistan. Lee, Lo and Lin (2017) suggested that allowing for unemployment and perfect labor mobility, ASEAN – Japan and ASEAN – Korean free trade have significant positive impact on real GDP growth. Gilbert, Furusawa and Scollay implement CGE model to analyze the impact of mega-trade deal TPP to members on non-members. It is showed that TPP positively influence members economics growth, however, these gains are unevenly distributed. Non-members will also witness a plunge in growth due to the effect of trade diversion. Others also utilize CGE model to analyze impact of FTAs on various aspects of the economy such as, Li (2017) analyzed the potential impact of TPP on foreign direct investment (FDI) flow. Itakura and Lee (2019) assessed the impact of CPTPP and RCEP on Japan agriculture trade. Kikuchi, Yanagida and Huong Vo applied static CGE model to evaluate the impact of TPP on Vietnam’s economy. However, disadvantages arise from the use of CGE model are often associated with the in- ability to analyze at products levels (HS-4 or HS-6 digits). Hence, a new method is required which often take the form of SMART tool based on Partial Equilibrium theory. Kumar and Ahmed (2014) utilized SMART as the framework to evaluate the impact of South Asia Free Trade Agree- ment (SAFTA). Othineo and Shinyek (2001) evaluated the role of African community customs unions on trade, total revenue and welfare of Uganda. Llano, Perez and Hengwings (2019) used SMART to evaluate the impact of 10%-25% of alumni tariff import of US on Spanish regions, the result showed that US import tariff might create 185.000 job loss world-wide and 3.500 job loss in Spain. Veeramani, Saini (2011) incorporated both SMART and gravity model to find out the impact of ASEAN – India FTA on export of plantation products which include coffee, tea and pepper in India. However, sectoral level studies on Vietnam FTA impact using SMART are rather limited in quantity. Vu (2016) found a significant positive impact of EVFTA on Vietnam medical export, specifically in the pharmaceutical sector. Anh and Ngoc (2011) used SMART to analyze the impact of RCEP on Vietnam’s automobile import. Nga, Minh, Dat (2020) aimed at analyzing the impact of EVFTA on Vietnam automobile’s export. The above review of existing literatures on the topic of FTAs influences reveals the limited quantity in research dedicated to quantifying the impact of new-generation FTAs such as EVFTA and CPTPP on products - level trade flow. As a result, this paper aims at analyzing the impact of EVFTA on Vietnam seafood export at HS-4 digits level. 3. Research methodology 3.1. Partial Equilibrium theory (PE) Partial equilibrium theory stemmed from basic supply and demand principle of economics and its name contribute to the fact that PE only consider effect on a single industry under certain policy changes and often neglect the spill-over effect on the whole economy. A basic theory framework for PE model is presented below. An import country j’s demand function toward good i from exporter k, will take the fol- lowing form 301
  14. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 Mi = αMPMε With αM is the demand constant and ε is the demand elasticity (import elasticity in this case) which then take up the following characteristic ε < 0. M is the total demand for product i at the import price of PM. Similarly, a supply function will take the following form Xi = αXPXη With αX is the supply constant and η > 0 is the supply elasticity, which is often assume to be close to positive infinity if the importer is considered to be small or has negligible import volume compared to global production. This assumption essentially means the market demand is constantly fulfilled by suppliers. The equilibrium condition of industry for goods i is pre- sented as Mi = Xi The relationship between import and export price is essentially characterize by the addition of tariff which can be illustrated through the following function PM = PX(1 + T/100) With T is understood as the level of tariff in percentage. The welfare effect derived from the changes in price can be calculated as integral of the supply and demand function These expressions complete the basic foundation of a PE model which can be used to sim- ulate the impact of alteration in tariff policies to trade volume of a single industry. 3.2. Single Market Partial Equilibrium Tool (SMART) SMART is a simulation tool developed by World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) – WTO to utilize PE model to simulate a “what if” or counter-factual scenario of tariff related policies based on data of a given year. SMART will calculate the counter-factual trade volume through 2 steps. Firstly, with the given information on supply and demand elasticities as well as the total price changes due to tariff, SMART will calibrate the total demand volume of good i. Afterwards, SMART will utilize data on products substitution elasticity (Armington elasticity) to calculate demand for each varieties of the products. As based mostly on the theory of PE, SMART will only give result on changes in one industry as it exists independently from the whole economy. In order to implement SMART, the following counter factual scenario is constructed: The EU eliminates import tariff on fisheries products of Vietnam from 2018 to 2028. The trade data used for the counter-factual scenario (base year) is 2018 4. Data Seafood trade data between EU members and partner is extracted from UNCOMTRADE and the existing tariff from TRAINS data base (tariff rates are counted as MFN). These data have already been incorporated in SMART derived from WITS software. Trade value is considered on HS – 4 digits level. 302
  15. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 The next section will provide a preliminary analysis on data of sea food trade between Vietnam and EU in the base year of 2018. (Unit: 000’ USD) (Source: UNCOMTRADE) Figure 4.1: Volume of seafood trade of major exporter to EU region According to seafood trade data in 2018 extracted from UNCOMTRADE, Vietnam ranked fifth in total export volume into the EU which was at 1.775.080 thousand USD. However, Vietnam seafood export to EU destinations was relatively equal compared to others major exporters (China at 1841654 thousand USD, Iceland at 2259506 thousand USD and United States at 1841654 thou- sand USD). The only exception is Norway with distinct trade volume which is at 18691052 thou- sand USD in 2018, this outlier can partly be explained by the close proximity between Norway and other members of the EU. Furthermore, the exceptional trade volume of Norway can also be explained by the similarity in taste and demand within the region. Nevertheless, the figures rep- resent the importance of Vietnam’s export of fishery products to the EU regions as well as the opportunities that Vietnam potentially obtained under the influence of EVFTA. (Unit: 000’ USD) Figure 4.2: Volume of Vietnam’s HS-4 digits level seafood export to the EU (Source: UNCOMTRADE) 303
  16. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 Considering data on Vietnam seafood export to the EU on HS-4 digits level, the majority of commercial activities in seafood products between Vietnam and EU concentrates in HS 0306 (Crustaceans) and HS 0304 (Fish fillets and other fish meat) which were at approximately 480000 thousand USD and 349856 thousand USD respectively in 2018. This reflects Vietnam’s seafood export structure which is heavily comprise of shrimps (included in HS 0306) and tuna, catfish (included in HS 0304). Other HS codes experience significant lower export volume, while HS 0303 (Frozen fish) enjoyed moderate trade at 44702 thousand USD, other HS codes including 0308 (Frozen fish), 0307 (Molluscs), 0305 (Fish, dried, salted or in brine; smoked fish), 0302 (Fish; fresh or chilled, 0301 (Live fish) had negligible trade flow, averaging around 2500 thousand USD in 2018. 5. Simulation Results 5.1. Impact of EVFTA on total seafood export of Vietnam Overall, simulation result presents a positive prospect for Vietnam export under the influ- ence of EVFTA. SMART’s result on changes in Vietnam’ export trade is presented below Table 5.1: Simulation result on impact of EVFTA on Vietnam’s total seafood export volume (Unit: 000’ USD) Index Value Export value before EVFTA 887540 Export value after EVFTA 1049740 Net value change 162199 Percentage value change 18.2% (Source: authors’ calculation) According to SMART result, tariff abolishment agreed by EVFTA will boost Vietnam’s sea food export to EU region by 2 million USD, which is an increase of 18.2%. In relation to the substantial export volume of Vietnam to the EU and the relatively high tariff barriers that Viet- nam’s seafood products have to face, this addition trade value of 18.2% is relatively small com- pared to expected growth of other SMART research dedicated to EVFTA impact on Vietnam trade volume. Specifically, Minh (2019) suggested that under the influence of EVFTA Vietnam import of meat products is expected to increase exponentially, some codes even enjoy a 600% growth or Huong (2018) suggests a 90-100 percent growth in pharmacutical prodducts’s export under the influence of EVFTA. Therefore, an increase of 18.2% in seafood products can be con- sidered relatively small. This restricted growth can be explained by Vietnam’s concentrated export structure into the EU. Vietnam’s main seafood export products (HS 0304, 0306, 0303) reflects demand of EU domestic users. Therefore, the 0% preference tariff of EVFTA will help boosting trade between Vietnam and EU under these products, however, domestic EU users have limited demand for Vietnam’s seafood variety which will act as a restriction to Vietnam’s export growth. Furthermore, the growth of Vietnam’s seafood export influenced by EVFTA might be underesti- mate due to SMART calculation characteristic. SMART pure calculation framework based on 304
  17. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 demand and supply theory, preventing it from taking into account changes in taste of taste of im- porter as well as manufactural technology of exporter which might downward bias the simulation results. 5.2. Impact of EVFTA on Vietnam’s seafood export at products level Table 5.2 presents results on products level (HS-4) export growth of Vietnam as tariff re- duced to 0%, a more detail results at HS-6 digits level will be presented in the Appendix for read- ers interested in finding disaggregated results. An asymmetric of growth distribution can be clearly identified from the SMART result. Considering net value of export growth, HS code 0303 rank first with approximately 99649 thousand USD in net value change, follow by HS code 0306 and Hs code 0304 with 31621 and 25565 thousand USD respectively. Unsurprisingly, growth of prod- ucts is in proportion with trade values, hence HS lines with already substantial trade flow will gains more benefits from liberalization of tariff. However, an exception is HS 0303 which has moderate trade value before EVFTA but outstanding growth after EVFTA, this can be explained by the high tariff barrier imposing on products within HS 0303. Apart from the aforementioned HS codes, others witness negligible absolute growth due to limited trade flow, again these growth rate can be underestimated as the result of SMART calculation nature. Regarding real growth rate (percentage change), heterogeneity in growth rate can again be observed, HS code 0303 gains distinct growth rate at 222%. While HS 0305 and HS 0302 average around 63% in growth rate. However, despite having exception net value change, HS 0306, 0304 have relatively restricted real growth at around 6.6% which is similar to others HS code 0307 (5%) and 0308 (6.6%). HS code 0301 has negligible changes in export value at 1.8%. Table 5.2: Vietnam seafood export changes at HS-4digits level (Unit: ‘000 USD) HS code Export before Export after Net changes in ex- Percentage changes EVFTA EVFTA port value in export value 0308 1033.44 1101.30 67.86 6.6% 0307 1145.38 1202.57 57.19 5.0% 0306 479990.65 511612.10 31621.45 6.6% 0305 8206.32 13272.66 5066.34 61.7% 0304 349856.47 375421.55 25565.08 7.3% 0303 44702.48 144351.55 99649.07 222.9% 0302 197.26 326.84 129.58 65.7% 0301 2408.13 2451.04 42.91 1.8% (Source: authors’ calculation) 6. Recommendations for promoting Vietnam’s trade benefits under EVFTA Results extracted from SMART suggest positive outcomes for Vietnam’s seafood export to EU members as tariff regress to 0% under the commitment of EVFTA. However, growth rate 305
  18. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS IN ECONOMICS & BUSINESS 2020 ICYREB 2020 expected is of moderate level despite Vietnam’s substantial export volume into the EU. Therefore, it is important that Vietnam government and businesses adopt certain strategy to better utilize preference tariff level of EVFTA. - Recommendations for Vietnam government Firstly, Vietnam government should provide businessess with support and funding to pro- mote R&D activities in order to improve quality of export products to better adapt to EU demand. Furthermore, the government can promote trade faciliation to reduce export cost for Vietnam businesses. Secondly, Vietnam government should create a stable environment to promote domestic productivity of seafood, as well as provide firms will opportunity to diversify their commodity. Thirdly, A range of export promotion programs and funding should be established in order to aid businesses in market penetration activities. This solution should help Vietnam’ businesses in competing with other major seafood exporters such as United State, China or even Norway. Recommendations for Vietnam’s businesses Firstly, Vietnam businesses should be active in diversify their products to satisfy EU’s de- mand and taste. Vietnam’s businesses should also seek to expand trade products to other potential HS codes such as 0302 or 0301. Secondly, Vietnam businesses should improve international competitiveness by investing in modern production process and methods of products conservation during transportation in order to enhance exports quality. 7. Conclusion This paper contributes to the number of ex-ante research dedicated to new generation FTA impact on countries by utilizing SMART embedded with PE theory to quantify the potential in- fluence of EVFTA on Vietnam seafood export volume. The results suggest an unsurprising improvement in already substantial Vietnam seafood export flow into EU destinations. However, growth rate derived from SMART is small in relation to the size of tariff abolished as well as Vietnam’s export share in EU market (ranked 5th in 2018). This is believed to be the reflection of Vietnam’s seafood export structure to the EU concentrating on certain HS codes (0304, 0306) which already enjoy relative low tariff rate prior to EVFTA. However, it is worth to mention the potential downward bias that underestimate growth rate result stemmed from the calculation nature of SMART as the tool underlying theory doesn’t allow ex- tensive margin estimation (calculate how changes in trade policy diversify export basket). Furthermore, analysis regarding export flow on disaggregated data, specifically HS-4 digits products, show an uneven distribution of net as well as real growth rate among different products code. Product lines with higher trade flow obtain higher net growth as a result of tariff reduction, however, real growth rate (calculate as the percentage difference between trade flow prior and after EVFTA) is not expected to concentrate on these products. Based on SMART results, certain recommendations for Vietnam’s government and busi- nesses are also drawn out aiming at extending the advantages of Vietnam exports from EFVFTA commitments. 306
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